Mar 9, 2006 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 9 10:06:18 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting an outbreak of severe thunderstorms today and tonight across portions of the United States. This is an extremely dangerous situation. Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic
20060309 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20060309 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20060309 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20060309 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 090559
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1159 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA...SRN
   AR...MS..WRN TN...WRN KY AND NWRN AL...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THAT SURROUNDS THE MODERATE
   RISK FROM ERN TX NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...SWD
   INTO AL AND GA...
   
   SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS EVENING
   ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE EJECTED FROM WRN TX NEWD
   INTO THE TN VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
   TONIGHT...AS A 100-110 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
   TROUGH...RESULTING IN THE SYSTEM TO BECOME STRONGLY NEGATIVELY
   TILTED.
   
   ...LOWER AND MID MS/TN VALLEY REGION...
   NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS TX/OK WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY NEWD INTO AR/MO/ERN
   OK BY MORNING. FAVORABLE STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ONGOING SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE
   MORNING AS THE STORMS DEVELOP/SHIFT NEWD THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE
   MID MS VALLEY.
   
   STRONGER CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF ERN TX AS MID LEVEL SPEED MAX AND STRONG THERMAL TROUGH
   PUNCH RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THE
   COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING
   INSTABILITY...PLUS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO LIFT NEGATIVELY
   TILTED INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY SHOULD RESULT IN STORMS TO
   INTENSIFY ACROSS LA BY MIDDAY AND THEN SPREAD RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS
   MS/AR/AL/TN/SERN MO/WRN KY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BACKING WINDS
   ALOFT AND PRONOUNCED THERMAL TROUGH...ESPECIALLY FROM AR/NRN MS NEWD
   SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS IN THIS AREA SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A FAST
   MOVING LINE. THE EXTREMELY STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS...70 KT AT 850
   MB AND 110 KT AT 500 MB...AND THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
   TROUGH MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE.
   
   AS THE SRN END OF THE TROUGH LIFTS NEWD FROM LA NEWD ACROSS MS AND
   INTO NWRN AL...MORE CELLULAR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORMS CAN
   REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED...INTENSE LOW/DEEP LEVEL SHEAR WOULD
   SUPPORT TORNADOES...SOME WHICH MAY BE QUITE STRONG. THE TORNADO
   POTENTIAL WILL BE THE GREATEST FROM SERN AR/LA NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF
   MS AND NWRN AL BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z.
   
   AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT...THE
   STRONGER FORCING WILL BECOME MORE REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER
   INSTABILITY. STORMS WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD INTO
   INTO ERN KY SWD INTO WRN GA...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
   GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
   
   ..IMY.. 03/09/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z