SPC AC 110059
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0659 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006
   
   VALID 110100Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SERN OK AND NERN
   TX INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
   
   ...LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY THROUGH WRN TN VALLEY...
   
   A WARM FRONT MARKED BY A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT EXTENDS FROM S
   CNTRL AL WWD THROUGH CNTRL MS...NRN LA AND INTO NERN TX WHERE IT
   INTERSECTS A DRYLINE. S OF THE WARM FRONT DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL
   ADVECT NWD TONIGHT WITH MOST PRONOUNCED THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED
   INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
   STRENGTHEN TO 50+ KT. A FEW STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
   ZONE OF THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG MOISTURE GRADIENT FROM S CNTRL MS
   EWD INTO W CNTRL AL. HOWEVER...EXPECT STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP
   FARTHER W INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT
   AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...AND THETA-E ADVECTION AND STEEPER
   MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY.
   ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   THREAT.
   
   
   ...NERN TX AND SERN OK...
   
   AN ISOLATED STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE RED RIVER ALONG
   THE TX/OK BORDER JUST NE OF GAINSVILLE. THIS STORM HAS DEVELOPED
   WHERE MIXING HAS WEAKENED THE CAP ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
   RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID
   50S. STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THIS AREA WILL SUPPORT
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. CURRENT THINKING
   IS THAT THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OR SO WITH
   A THREAT OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   BEGINS TO DECOUPLE AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES IT MAY BECOME
   DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN SURFACE BASED STORMS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 03/11/2006
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z