Mar 13, 2006 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Mar 13 01:04:18 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20060313 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20060313 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20060313 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20060313 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 130101
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0701 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   VALID 130100Z - 131200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER EXTREME EASTERN
   KANSAS...MUCH OF MISSOURI...EXTREME SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST
   CENTRAL/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR
   NORTHEAST TEXAS...ARKANSAS...AND SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA FROM
   EASTERN KANSAS TO WESTERN INDIANA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
   AREA FROM THE SERN PLAINS NEWD TO THE SRN GREAT LAKES/LOWER OH RIVER
   VALLEY...
   
   ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TO CONTINUE THROUGH
   TONIGHT...
   
   STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH ASSOCIATED 100+ KT MID
   LEVEL SPEED MAX EXTENDING FROM ERN NM TO IA WILL CONTINUE TO
   TRANSLATE NEWD OVERNIGHT TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  STRONG HEIGHT
   FALLS WITH THIS TROUGH/WITHIN EXIT REGION OF JET WILL AID IN THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER MN BY 12Z MONDAY.  SURFACE
   LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL-NERN KS...IS PROGGED TO
   TRACK/REDEVELOP ENEWD AND STRENGTHEN SOME REACHING NRN IL TO SRN
   LAKE MI BY 12Z MONDAY. WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD WILL CONTINUE TO
   RETREAT NWD TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE COLD FRONT
   TRAILING SWWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW SPREADS EWD OVERTAKING THE DRY
   LINE WHICH EXTENDED SWD FROM ERN KS TO CENTRAL OK/TX.  COLD FRONT IS
   EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NRN IL THROUGH ERN MO TO NERN TX BY 12Z
   MONDAY.
   
   STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES FORECAST TO PERSIST
   THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY 
   SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS ACROSS FAR ERN
   KS/SERN IA THROUGH MUCH OF MO/IL AND INTO WRN IND.  TORNADIC
   SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY...INCLUDING A THREAT FOR SEVERAL LONG TRACK
   STRONG-VIOLENT TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HIGH RISK AREA. 
   VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH
   ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MODERATE/HIGH RISK AREAS.
   
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUING TO SPREAD ENEWD OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED
   TO AID IN THE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS SWD ALONG THE DRY
   LINE THROUGH ERN OK TO NERN TX THIS EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY
   SPREADING NEWD ACROSS AR/SRN MO TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY
   OVERNIGHT.  EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES RANGING FROM 150-300 M2/S2 SUGGEST
   POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...A FEW STRONG.  IN
   ADDITION...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY.
   
   OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE
   BANDS OR CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
   FRONT AS THEY MOVE EWD TOWARD THE MS VALLEY.  ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
   THREAT MAY TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AFTER
   06Z...THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN LOW
   LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY SUGGESTS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED
   TORNADOES WITH BOWS OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN QUASI-LINEAR
   SEGMENTS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/13/2006
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z