SPC AC 160055
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0655 PM CST WED MAR 15 2006
   
   VALID 160100Z - 161200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PATTERN IS EVIDENT ACROSS MOST
   OF CONUS.  WRN STATES SYNOPTIC RIDGING INCREASES IN AMPLITUDE WITH
   NWD EXTENT ...THROUGH NRN ROCKIES AND INTO W-CENTRAL CANADA.  STRONG
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW JUST OFFSHORE WA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
   NEWD...FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER STRONG
   TROUGH NOW EVIDENT AROUND 135W-140W.  MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES --
   WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.
   ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE -- ANALYZED ATTM BETWEEN MCK-HLC -- IS FCST
   TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS LNK AREA OVERNIGHT.  ISOLATED/BRIEF THUNDER
   EVENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT N OF SFC LOW IN ELEVATED WAA CONVEYOR. 
   HOWEVER...WHILE THIS WILL REMAIN A STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL
   PERTURBATION...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING WILL PRECLUDE GEN TSTM
   AREA.
   
   ...SRN/ERN TX TO WRN/NRN LA...
   WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL TX
   IN REGIME OF ELEVATED MOISTENING AND WAA.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
   POSSIBLE INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH END OF PERIOD AS SEGMENTS OF
   MARGINALLY MOIST AIR IN LOW-MIDDLE LEVELS ARE LIFTED TO LFC. 
   MUCAPES SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 500 J/KG AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES ENEWD
   ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SE TX THIS EVENING.  RELATIVELY STABLE/LOW-THETAE
   BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PRECLUDE SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR
   REMAINDER PERIOD.  LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ABOVE THIS LAYER
   ARE FCST TO VEER -- SHUNTING FAVORABLE/ELEVATED RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
   ENEWD AND NEWD ACROSS E TX AND LA.
   
   ...COASTAL PACIFIC NW...
   BAND OF STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER ASCENT IS EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY
   ...WITH EMBEDDED TCU AND SHALLOW CB...NOW MOVING ASHORE WA AND NWRN
   ORE.  ONCE THIS MOVE INLAND OVER COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER....DURING
   NEXT 3-4 HOURS...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL SET IN AND THUNDER POTENTIAL
   SHOULD DIMINISH.  THEN...TOWARD 16/12Z...ANOTHER AREA OF MAXIMIZED
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL APCH
   COAST...ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH NOW AROUND 135W-140W.  THIS WILL
   SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTMS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/16/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z