SPC AC 191259
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0659 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006
   
   VALID 191300Z - 201200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPR TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN GRT BASIN SHOULD EJECT E/NE TO THE
   CNTRL/SRN RCKYS LATER THIS PERIOD AS UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE OVER THE
   GULF OF AK MOVES SE TO OFF THE ORE/NRN CA COAST.  SATELLITE LOOPS
   SHOW SPEED MAXIMA CONTINUING TO DROP S ON WRN SIDE OF GRT BASIN
   SYSTEM.  THUS...EXPECT THAT LARGE SCALE TROUGH LIKELY WILL CONTINUE
   TO BE A SLOW-MOVER UNTIL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER NRN
   BAJA ASSUMES A NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT UPON REACHING NM/W
   TX TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT SHALLOW WARM FRONT THAT NOW EXTENDS FROM N
   OF KDRT TO NEAR KSAT TO NEAR KHOU WILL DRIFT/REDEVELOP SLOWLY N WITH
   TIME.  ITS MOVEMENT WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY BE RETARDED BY CONTINUED
   DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION N OF FRONT. FARTHER N...
   SECONDARY BAROCLINIC ZONE/INVERTED TROUGH MAY ALSO REMAIN DISTINCT
   ...EXTENDING FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY ENE INTO E
   CNTRL/NE TX.  ELONGATED LEE LOW INITIALLY OVER ERN NM SHOULD
   CONSOLIDATE NE INTO THE TX PANHANDLE LATER TODAY/ TONIGHT...BUT
   SHOULD REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM TRUE WARM SECTOR AIR  OVER S
   CNTRL/SE TX.
   
   ...SRN PLNS...
   OVERNIGHT PERSISTENCE OF TSTMS ALONG INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE TX
   HILL COUNTRY ENE INTO E CNTRL/NE TX SUGGESTS THAT THIS CORRIDOR WILL
   REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH THE DAY AS DEEP/MOIST SWLY FLOW
   CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON BOUNDARY BENEATH WEAKLY DIFFLUENT UPR JET. 
   THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE
   SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ON N SIDE OF TROUGH. WITH TIME...HOWEVER...
   MODEST SURFACE HEATING MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED
   ACTIVITY FROM NE OF KDRT TO NEAR KCLL...WHERE SBCAPE COULD EXCEED
   1000 J/KG.  COUPLED WITH LOW LCLS AND 40-50 KT CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR
   ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE TROUGH...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW HP
   SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
   TORNADOES.
   
   FARTHER W...EXPECT THAT A SECOND CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE AXIS WILL
   EVOLVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NE NM AND THE WRN
   TX PANHANDLE S/SE INTO THE TX S PLAINS/PERMIAN BASIN AS SURFACE
   HEATING DESTABILIZES REGION ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE. BY EVENING
   THIS REGION WILL ALSO COME UNDER INFLUENCE OF RAPIDLY INCREASING
   LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE
   IMPULSE.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL...MORE WIDESPREAD STORM
   DEVELOPMENT.  WITH 500 MB SSWLY FLOW INCREASING TO AOA 70 KTS...
   EXPECT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND.  WHILE STORM MODE
   MAY FAIRLY RAPIDLY TREND TOWARD BANDS/CLUSTERS...BACKED LOW LEVEL
   FLOW INVOF WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SEGMENTS AND SEASONABLY RICH
   MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
   
   THE TX STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS BY MID TO LATE
   EVENING.  THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP PRIMARILY NEWD
   ...POSSIBLY AFFECTING PARTS OF OK...SW AR AND LA WITH A THREAT FOR
   HAIL AND POSSIBLY HIGH WIND EARLY MONDAY.
   
   ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 03/19/2006
   
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