SPC AC 200059
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0659 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006
   
   VALID 200100Z - 201200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN
   PLAINS...
   
   ...SRN PLAINS...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER-LOW OVER THE
   DESERT SW WITH A SUBTROPICAL PLUME EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS MOST OF TX.
   AN MCS IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WCNTRL TX IN A HIGHLY
   DIFFLUENT PATTERN IN THE EXIT REGION OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
   JET. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL INCREASE
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SUPPORTING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL MCS CLUSTERS. ONE MCS CURRENTLY ONGOING WILL
   TRACK EWD ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY INTO EAST TX WITH ANOTHER LIKELY
   ORGANIZING ACROSS WEST TX MOVING EWD ACROSS NORTH TX AND SRN OK
   LATER TONIGHT.
   
   00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE
   ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 70 TO 80 KT. THE
   VERY STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. VERY LARGE
   HAIL...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY
   WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED AND SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
   60S F. IF THE SRN MCS BECOMES LINEAR IN ORIENTATION LATER
   TONIGHT...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD CONTINUE INTO EAST TX.
   ALTHOUGH SUPERCELLS WITH THE NRN MCS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
   ELEVATED...LARGE HAIL WILL STILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
   THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MARGINAL LATE TONIGHT DUE
   TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY AS THE TWO MCS CLUSTERS MOVE EWD INTO NE TX
   AND LA.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 03/20/2006
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z