SPC AC 290102
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0702 PM CST TUE MAR 28 2006
   
   VALID 290100Z - 291200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF W TX AND
   EXTREME SERN NM...
   
   ...WRN/CNTRL TX...
   EVE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
   MOVING ENEWD ACROSS COAHUILA AND WRN TX THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
   REMAINDER OF TX OVERNIGHT.  ALTHOUGH AFTN ERN TX MCS HAS DISRUPTED
   THE INFLOW OF MORE QUALITY GULF MSTR...PRESENCE OF LARGE SCALE
   ASCENT AND LOW-LEVEL SELY UPSLOPE FLOW AMIDST STRONG HEATING WERE
   SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
   COAHUILA NWWD INTO SERN NM.  ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
   THE DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS AND STORMS WERE
   MAINTAINING CHARACTER OFF THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE COMPARATIVELY
   WEAKER CAP THAN ON MON.  
   
   SLY LLJ WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER OVERNIGHT FROM W TX NWD THROUGH THE
   PLAINS.  STRONGEST LOW/MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD
   CONCENTRATE FROM THE KMAF REGION ENEWD ALONG THE E-W ORIENTED
   BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND TOWARD KABI BY 12Z. 
   TSTMS THROUGH MID-EVE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY
   LARGE HAIL...BUT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD MAINLY BE LARGE HAIL OVERNIGHT
   AS THE STORMS MOVE/DEVELOP ENEWD.  
   
   OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE COLD BUBBLE
   ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE HILL COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT. 
   THESE STORMS MAY POSE A HAIL THREAT AS WELL...BUT THE STRONGEST
   STORMS SHOULD MOVE MAINLY N OF THE REGION.
   
   ...DEEP S TX...
   TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SWWD MOVING COLD POOL ACROSS
   DEEP S TX THIS EVENING.  THE LAYER JUST ABOVE H85 ON THE 00Z BRO
   SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME BEING MAINTAINED
   THIS EVENING.  WILL MAINTAIN A LOW PROBABILITY OF DAMAGING
   WINDS...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING.
   
   ...SAN JOAQUIN VLY...
   THE WIND PROFILER AT CHOWCHILLA AND HANFORD SUGGESTS THAT THE
   MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS BACKED AND IS RESULTING IN A DEEP MEAN SLY FLOW. 
   OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VLY LATE THIS AFTN.  THIS HAS RESULTED IN A
   PROFILE CONDUCIVE FOR BACKBUILDING TSTM LINE SEGMENTS WITH BRIEF
   UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.  LOCALIZED BACKED FLOW ALONG THE FOOTHILLS MAY
   KEEP FUNNEL CLOUD/TORNADO THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVE ALONG WITH
   DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE
   EVENING.
   
   ..RACY.. 03/29/2006
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z