SPC AC 291253
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0653 AM CST WED MAR 29 2006
   
   VALID 291300Z - 301200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND
   ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATER TONIGHT. DOWNSTREAM...A WEAK UPPER
   LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES EWD ACROSS TX.
   
   AT THE SFC...THE OLD FRONT ACROSS N TX IS IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING
   OUT AS 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET RETURNS INCREASING GULF MOISTURE NWD
   THRU THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME DRY LINE WILL
   BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM NWRN KS SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND
   SWRN TX AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW BECOMES ORGANIZED VICINITY OF SERN
   MT BY THIS EVENING.
   
   ...PLAINS...
   OVERNIGHT NON-SEVERE MCS ACTIVITY IN TX TEMPORARILY DISRUPTED THE 
   RETURN OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...HOWEVER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND
   GPS PW'S CONFIRM ADVECTION OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS CONTINUING WITH
   ELEVATED CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING NCENTRAL KS/SCENTRAL NEB.
   
   TX CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS AM AS UPPER IMPULSE MOVES
   ON TO E AND THIS WILL ALLOW 60F DEWPOINTS TO SPREAD NWD THRU TX E OF
   DRY LINE WITH MID 50S ACROSS OK TO KS BORDER BY LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   WHILE THE ASCENT AND STRONGER SHEAR WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL NOT
   IMPINGE ON THE HIGH PLAINS UNTIL AFTER DARK...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE ON DRY LINE COUPLED WITH 7C/KM LAPSE RATES AND
   INCREASING INSTABILITY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   THREAT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR
   STORM ROTATION WITH PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL THREAT.
   
   OVERNIGHT THE SITUATION BECOMES MORE COMPLEX AS LOW LEVEL JET
   INCREASES TO 40-50 KT AND THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT
   THE HIGH PLAINS.  WARM ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
   SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WRN DAKOTAS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASINGLY
   WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.  SEVERE POTENTIAL
   SHOULD BE PRIMARILY ELEVATED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING A FEW
   SUPERCELLS.  AGAIN PRIMARY THREAT FROM ELEVATED STORMS WOULD BE
   LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH WIND DAMAGE COULD DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
   SUPERCELL. SEVERE COVERAGE TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF
   INSTABILITY THAT IS AVAILABLE.
   
   ...FOUR CORNERS REGION...
   A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THRU THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 4
   CORNERS REGION WHERE COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST AHEAD OF COLD
   FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM CENTRAL UT TO WRN AZ. PRIMARY THREAT
   WILL BE HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..HALES/GRAMS.. 03/29/2006
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z