Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

   SPC AC 301632
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1032 AM CST THU MAR 30 2006
   
   VALID 301630Z - 311200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN KS...ERN
   OK...SERN NEB...SWRN IA...NWRN AR...AND WRN MO...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
   FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
   
   ...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   TONIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AS
   VERY DYNAMIC SYNOPTIC SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MS
   VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER SERN CO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATE
   TONIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE...LOW OVER EXTREME WRN KS IS FORECAST TO
   DEEPEN FURTHER AS MOVES INTO NERN NEB THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
   ACROSS NWRN IA INTO SRN MN TONIGHT.  A WELL-DEFINED DRY LINE ACROSS
   WRN KS AND ENTERING EXTREME WRN OK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS
   PARTS OF ERN KS/CENTRAL OK THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
   FRONT THAT WILL GRADUALLY OVERTAKE THE DRY LINE TONIGHT.  THE FRONT
   IS EXPECTED TO SURGE EWD ACROSS IA AND MO TONIGHT...REACHING SWRN WI
   AND NWRN IL BY THE NED OF THE PERIOD...WHILE SRN PART OF THE FRONT
   MOVES EWD MORE SLOWLY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
   MOISTURE IS RETURNING NWD WITH 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS THROUGH
   CENTRAL KS.  CLOUDS AND ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE WARM
   SECTOR AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE ARE LIMITING HEATING AND
   DESTABILIZATION AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES
   LOCAL BREAKS IN CLOUD WHICH MAY SUPPORT AREAS OF ENHANCED HEATING
   THIS AFTERNOON.  STRONGEST HEATING IS EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE
   DRY LINE WHERE INSOLATION COUPLED WITH PRE-EXISTING STEEP MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY WITH
   MLCAPE TO 1000 J/KG FROM SERN NEB INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NERN
   KS...INCREASING TO  1500-2000 J/KG FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL OK SWD INTO
   RED RIVER VALLEY.  WITH A MINIMAL CAP IN PLACE BASED ON 12Z
   SOUNDINGS AND RUC TRENDS...CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO INCREASE BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL KS SWD INTO PARTS OF OK.
   
   
   VERY STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE EVIDENT IN VAD/PROFILER DATA
   WITH 80 KT MID LEVEL WESTERLY JET STREAK CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
   TX PANHANDLE...AND 40-50 KT SSWLY WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND KS. 
   WIND PROFILES EXHIBIT VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL
   SHEAR...AND AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE AFTERNOON...
   HODOGRAPHS ARE EXPECTED TO EXHIBIT INCREASINGLY LARGE CLOCKWISE
   TURNING HODOGRAPHS WITH KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF RIGHT
   MOVING SUPERCELLS.
   
   GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES...ESPECIALLY
   NORTH OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL JET OVER KS/SERN NEB...STORMS ARE LIKELY
   TO RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AFTER INITIATION AS STRONGER UPDRAFTS
   ACQUIRE SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS.  ASSUMING DISCRETE STORMS BE
   MAINTAINED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEY WILL BE CAPABLE
   OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES /INCLUDING A FEW
   SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES/ AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS ACTIVITY MOVES
   NEWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. AS THE CONVECTION
   MOVES EWD TONIGHT...A QUASI-LINEAR MCS WITH EMBEDDED BOWS/LEWPS IS
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS PARTS OF IA AND MO AS THE COLD FRONT
   SURGES EWD INTO A PROGRESSIVELY LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
   
   ..WEISS/JEWELL.. 03/30/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z