Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

   SPC AC 010551
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1151 PM CST FRI MAR 31 2006
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN TX INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
   KS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
   WEST TX INTO SRN NEB...WRN MO...AR...AND NRN LA...
   
   CORRECTED FOR WRONG DAY
   
   ...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS A
   CONCENTRATED AREA OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY...
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
   
   UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A
   TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE SWRN U.S./SRN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
   OF WRN KS/TX PANHANDLE BY 00Z/02.  LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
   DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED UPPER VORT JUST WEST OF SAN...CLEARLY DEFINED
   AND LIKELY STRONGER THAN MODELS ARE INDICATING.  THIS FEATURE WILL
   PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   FROM WRN KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 21Z.
   
   LATE EVENING DIAGNOSTIC DATA AND TRENDS SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER
   RECOVERY IS WELL UNDER WAY ACROSS NORTH TX WITH WARM
   ADVECTION/MOISTENING CONTRIBUTING TO RECENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...JUST SE OF LBB.  IT APPEARS WARM FRONT
   WILL LIFT INTO OK LATER THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY. 
   EVEN SO...THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MAY BE NOTED WITH THIS RETREAT
   ACROSS SRN OK...THEN INTO PORTIONS OF AR/LA LATER IN THE MORNING AS
   BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS/DESTABILIZES.
   
   OF MORE CONCERN IS THE EXPECTED RAPID MOISTENING INTO THE TX
   PANHANDLE/WRN OK INTO WRN KS AHEAD OF UPPER SHORTWAVE. LATEST
   THINKING IS MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS FAR NW AS SWRN
   KS...WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE TX
   PANHANDLE/WRN OK WHERE MID 60S DEW POINTS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF
   THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.  IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL INITIATE PRIOR
   TO 21Z OVER THE WRN TX PANHANDLE...THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD INTO VERY
   FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS STRONGLY
   FAVOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DOES INDEED
   RETURN AS EXPECTED.  VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS
   ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS DOWNSTREAM.  BY LATE EVENING AN UPWARD
   EVOLVING LINEAR MCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES SHOULD
   SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CNTRL KS/OK TOWARD WRN MO BY THE END
   OF THE PERIOD.
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY...
   
   RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION WILL ENHANCE
   INSTABILITY/FOCUS FOR LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
   CLUSTERS ACROSS AR INTO WRN MS.  WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY AID INITIAL
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALSO
   CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS BEFORE CONVECTION
   WEAKENS AND LIFTS NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY LATER IN THE EVENING.
   
   ...NERN U.S...
   
   A NARROW WEDGE OF MOISTENING/HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
   ACROSS NY INTO PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS MORNING. 
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO ERN PA SUGGEST
   200-400 J/KG SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP PRIOR TO FRONTAL
   PASSAGE.  IT APPEARS A FORCED LINE OF LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   EVOLVE ALONG THE WIND SHIFT THEN SURGE EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
   NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SHEAR AND THE
   POSSIBILITY FOR WLY MOMENTUM TRANSFER ARE NOT THAT SIGNIFICANT GIVEN
   THE WEAK INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT.  FORECAST STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST
   LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH MORE ORGANIZED
   CELLS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS COVERAGE OF SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS WILL NOT WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.
   
   ..DARROW.. 04/01/2006
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z