SPC AC 030119
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0819 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006
   
   VALID 030100Z - 031200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
   INDIANA...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...WESTERN
   TENNESSEE AND WESTERN KENTUCKY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH/TN/MID MS VALLEYS
   AND WSWWD INTO NERN TX...
   
   CORRECTED FOR MODERATE RISK LINE
   
   ...OH/TN VALLEYS...
   LINE OF STORMS -- WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS -- IS CURRENTLY ARCING
   SEWD FROM SRN WI INTO SRN INDIANA.  MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THEN
   CONTINUE ARCING SWD/SWWD ACROSS WRN KY INTO NERN AR/WRN TN. 
   WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING WITH THIS AREA OF
   STORMS...INCLUDING REPORTS OF SEVERAL LARGE/DAMAGING TORNADOES.
   
   SURFACE LOW IS NOW OBSERVED OVER ERN IA...WITH A WARM FRONT
   EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS NRN AND ERN IL/SRN INDIANA INTO NRN KY. 
   MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SSEWD ACROSS WRN IL/SERN
   MO AND THEN SWWD ACROSS NRN AND WRN AR INTO NERN TX.  WHILE AIRMASS
   AHEAD OF COLD FRONT REMAINS MOIST/UNSTABLE...MUCH COOLER/DRIER
   AIRMASS EXISTS NE OF WARM FRONT.  THIS LEAVES ONLY A NARROW WARM
   SECTOR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN IL...WHILE WARM SECTOR BROADENS TO
   INCLUDE MOST OF KY AND INTO THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS.  
   
   AS STORMS MOVE EWD/ENEWD ACROSS NERN IL INTO NRN AND CENTRAL
   INDIANA...DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY
   DIMINISH WITH TIME...DUE TO MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS NE OF WARM
   FRONT. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR HAIL MAY PERSIST WELL EWD -- PERHAPS
   INTO SRN LOWER MI/OH AND PERHAPS WRN PA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
   
   MEANWHILE S OF WARM FRONT AND E OF COLD FRONT...MOIST AND VERY
   UNSTABLE WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS PERSISTS...WITH 1500 TO 3000 J/KG
   MEAN-LAYER CAPE FROM NERN TX NEWD ACROSS AR INTO WRN AND CENTRAL
   KY...MUCH OF TN...AND NRN PORTIONS OF MS AND AL.
   
   IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS
   QUITE STRONG...INCLUDING 80-PLUS KT H5 JET STREAK NOW CENTERED OVER
   SRN MO...WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS
   OVERNIGHT.  GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...EXPECT SCATTERED
   SUPERCELLS OVER NERN AR/WRN KY/WRN TN TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
   HOURS...WHILE MORE LINEAR STORMS CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
   REGION.  ALONG WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND
   LARGE HAIL...RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT MAY ALSO
   EVOLVE WITH TIME.  STORMS MAY CROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF
   THE PERIOD...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS W
   OF THE APPALACHIAN CREST...AS MUCH DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS E OF
   THE MOUNTAINS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 04/03/2006
   
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