Apr 4, 2006 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Tue Apr 4 00:58:12 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
|
|||||||||||
SPC AC 040055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT MON APR 03 2006 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SERN U.S.... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC/SERN U.S... CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING. 00Z SOUNDING FROM WAL WAS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE WITH ONLY 300 J/KG MUCAPE...ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WAS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. PROXIMITY TO COOLER MARINE LAYER NEAR THE COAST DOES NOT FAVOR STRENGTHENING OF SQUALL LINE...THUS A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FARTHER SOUTH...VEERED FLOW ACROSS GA INTO THE CAROLINAS HAS AIDED STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT THAT ENHANCED TEMP/DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AHEAD OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITH LOSS OF HEATING INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED AND THIS SHOULD FACILITATE CONTINUED WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ONGOING ACTIVITY UNTIL THIS TRANSITION OCCURS. ..DARROW.. 04/04/2006 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |