Apr 4, 2006 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Apr 4 00:58:12 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20060404 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20060404 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20060404 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20060404 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 040055
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0755 PM CDT MON APR 03 2006
   
   VALID 040100Z - 041200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND
   SERN U.S....
   
   ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC/SERN U.S...
   
   CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
   IT SPREADS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING.  00Z
   SOUNDING FROM WAL WAS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE WITH ONLY 300 J/KG
   MUCAPE...ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WAS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
   SUSTAINING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. PROXIMITY TO COOLER MARINE LAYER
   NEAR THE COAST DOES NOT FAVOR STRENGTHENING OF SQUALL LINE...THUS A
   GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
   
   FARTHER SOUTH...VEERED FLOW ACROSS GA INTO THE CAROLINAS HAS AIDED
   STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT THAT ENHANCED TEMP/DEW POINT
   DEPRESSIONS AHEAD OF CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...WITH LOSS OF HEATING
   INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED AND THIS SHOULD FACILITATE CONTINUED
   WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG
   WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ONGOING ACTIVITY UNTIL THIS TRANSITION OCCURS.
   
   ..DARROW.. 04/04/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z