SPC AC 070048
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0748 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
   
   VALID 070100Z - 071200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS EARLY THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF
   SE KS/NE OK/NW AR...AND SW MO....
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE OZARK PLATEAU....
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS  PARTS
   OF EXTREME SE SD/ERN NEB AND WRN IA....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT AND HIGH
   RISK AREAS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE E CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID MO
   VALLEY....
   
   MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   BUT WILL REDEVELOP EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
   AS STRONG IMPULSE CONTINUES TO PIVOT AROUND ITS SOUTHEASTERN INTO
   EASTERN PERIPHERY.  STRONGEST MID-LEVEL COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL SURGE
   NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER
   MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
   OCCLUDED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.
   
   STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION/DESTABILIZATION LIKELY
   WILL MAINTAIN A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT ANOTHER FEW HOURS ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU. 
   HOWEVER...EXTENT OF THREAT IS MORE UNCERTAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE
   MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...WHERE CONSIDERABLE
   CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION IMPEDED LOW-LEVEL WARMING TODAY.
   
   ...MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY*...
   STRONG SHEAR/FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF 90-100+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK
   WILL SPREAD FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH EXTREME
   NORTHWEST MISSOURI/WESTERN IOWA THROUGH 02-03Z.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST AS
   ACTIVITY BEGINS TO INGEST MORE MOIST UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF
   THE MISSOURI RIVER.  TONGUE OF 60F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS HAS ADVECTED
   INTO WESTERN IOWA ON SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF DEEP SURFACE
   CYCLONE.  EASTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS...WHICH COULD ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT IN STRONGER
   CELLS WITHIN DEVELOPING LINE.  OTHERWISE... RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
   COULD STILL INCREASE WITH CONVECTIVE LINE ...BEFORE FORCING PIVOTS
   THROUGH REMAINDER OF INSTABILITY AXIS LATER THIS EVENING.
   
   ...OZARK PLATEAU*...
   SECOND AREA OF ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
   PERSIST NEAR MID-LEVEL JET CORE...WHERE MID-LEVEL WINDS VEER TO A
   MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT.  THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO A FAVORABLE
   HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE FOR MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.  POTENTIAL FOR
   TORNADOES...POSSIBLY STRONG...WILL CONTINUE AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES
   THROUGH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AXIS WITH CAPE TO 2000
   J/KG NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA BORDER AREAS. 
   DEEPER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI/NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SEVERE
   POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ABOVE MORE STABLE
   BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER 03-04Z.
   
   *FOR MORE SPECIFIC AND UPDATED INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR
   IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE KEEP WATCH FOR LATEST SPC
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/07/2006
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z