SPC AC 150106
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0806 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2006
   
   VALID 150100Z - 151200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS INDIANA...SWRN
   OH...N-CENTRAL/NERN KY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM CENTRAL IL TO
   WRN VA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
   WILL MOVE NEWD FROM SRN CA ACROSS 4-CORNERS REGION THROUGH REMANDER
   PERIOD.  SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT FROM SWRN LM SWWD ACROSS
   NWRN MO...S-CENTRAL KS...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY WSWWD ACROSS NWRN
   OK INTO WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL PORTION OK PANHANDLE.  OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IS EVIDENT FROM NERN IL
   SEWD NEAR A LINE FROM 35 NE CMI...IND...20 W CVG...45 NNE JKL...CRW.
    OVERALL THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE LITTLE THROUGH REMAINDER
   PERIOD...BUT WILL BE SHUNTED SWD LOCALLY BY INDIVIDUAL TSTM
   OUTFLOWS.
   
   ...IL TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
   SEVERAL POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
   MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR...IN ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE
   MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO BOTH SHEAR AND BUOYANCY.  ANOTHER CLUSTER
   OF MOSTLY HAIL PRODUCING TSTMS OVER NRN WV AND SWRN PA SHOULD
   CONTINUE MOVING SEWD TOWARD NRN/WRN VA...SEVERE POTENTIAL GRADUALLY
   DIMINISHING AS IT ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY MORE DRY/STABLE INFLOW
   LAYER.
   
   REF WWS 184-188 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST
   DETAILS OVER THIS REGION.
   
   OVERALL...MOST FAVORABLE ZONE FOR SEVERE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND JUST
   N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN CENTRAL/NERN IL AND SWRN OH/NERN KY. 
   MODIFIED SOUNDINGS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LIFTED PARCELS WILL
   REMAIN SFC-BASED OR NEARLY SO INVOF BOUNDARY...WHICH ALSO IS
   ORIENTED FAVORABLY FOR RIGHTWARD MOTION OFF HODOGRAPH. EXPECT
   EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY BOOSTED SFC DEW POINTS -- LOW-MID 60S F
   RESULTING FROM EARLIER RAINFALL...AND LOWER LCL ALONG AND N OF
   BOUNDARY.  LCL ALSO SHOULD DROP ALONG AND JUST S OF BOUNDARY IN
   RELATION TO SFC DIABATIC COOLING THROUGH EVENING HOURS...WHILE THOSE
   PARCELS REMAIN NEARLY SFC-BASED AS WELL.  GREATEST THREAT SHOULD
   REMAIN E OF WEAK MESOLOW -- ANALYZED ON SFC CHARTS OVER EXTREME
   E-CENTRAL IL AND NWRN INDIANA ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  PRECEDING SFC
   PRESSURE FALLS AND RELATIVELY BACKED FLOW N OF BOUNDARY WILL KEEP
   0-1 AND 0-3 KM AGL HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLY ENLARGED...WITH SRH AS HIGH
   AS 400-600 J/KG THROUGH THOSE LAYERS.  60-70 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEARS
   ALSO SILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL S...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR
   EVENTUAL BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT.
   
   SOMETIME AROUND 15/06Z...EXPECT PROGRESSIVELY MORE DECOUPLED
   BOUNDARY LAYER...SOMEWHAT ELEVATED PRIMARY INFLOW LAYER AND RELATED
   INCREASE IN LLJ TO SUPPORT ONE OR MORE MCS BETWEEN INDIANA AND SRN
   WV.  DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
   SUBSEQUENT LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/15/2006
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z