SPC AC 291241
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0741 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2006
   
   VALID 291300Z - 301200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E TX AND THE LWR MS VLY
   NWD INTO THE OZARKS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BLOCKY...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LWR 48
   THROUGH SUNDAY...S OF MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS THAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
   THE N PAC/CNTRL CANADA.  MAIN FEATURE AFFECTING SVR TSTM POTENTIAL
   WILL BE STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE/SPEED MAX NOW OVER W TX.  THIS
   FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE NE ACROSS TX/ERN OK TODAY...RESULTING IN
   DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD LOW OVER SE NEB BY TONIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE
   FURTHER CONSOLIDATES WITH EXISTING CIRCULATION OVER THE NRN PLNS.
   
   AT LWR LEVELS...SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW SHALLOW NW/SE ORIENTED WARM
   FRONT CONTINUING TO LIFT SLOWLY N/E ACROSS FAR ERN TX/SRN LA.  THE
   BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH WRN MS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING... WITH
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPR 60S IN WAKE OF BOUNDARY
   ACROSS MUCH OF LA.  EFFECTIVE WRN EDGE OF WARM SECTOR LIKELY WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE SQUALL LINE THAT NOW EXTENDS ROUGHLY
   NNE/SSW ACROSS E TX.  THIS MCS SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO LA THROUGH THE
   DAY.
   
   FARTHER N...WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW OVER N CNTRL TX/SE OK SHOULD BECOME
   BETTER ORGANIZED AND ACCELERATE NE INTO SW MO BY THIS EVENING AS THE
   W TX UPR TROUGH CONTINUES NEWD.  COLD FRONT TRAILING S FROM
   INTENSIFYING LOW EXPECTED TO REACH ERN TX BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
   SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS AR/LA INTO WRN MS BY EARLY SUNDAY.
   
   ...E TX/LWR MS VLY INTO SWRN OZARKS...
   E TX SQUALL LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR STRONG/
   POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS AS THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES E
   ACROSS LA /SRN AR LATER TODAY. RELATIVELY WARM LAYER BETWEEN ABOUT
   800 AND 600 MB AHEAD OF THE LINE LIKELY WILL LIMIT COVERAGE/
   POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE UNTIL SURFACE
   HEATING DESTABILIZES THE LWR LAYERS.  STORMS SHOULD...HOWEVER...
   CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG LEADING EDGE OF SQUALL LINE...AND OTHERS MAY
   FORM ALONG WARM FRONT. GIVEN INCREASINGLY RICH MOISTURE INFLOW...
   AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 50-60 KT SWLY MID LEVEL
   FLOW...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW /MAINLY EMBEDDED/ SUPERCELLS.  WEAK
   LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT LARGE HAIL THREAT...BUT MODERATE TO STRONGLY
   VEERED LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES COULD YIELD A COUPLE TORNADOES.
   
   FARTHER NW...IN THE WAKE OF THE SQUALL LINE...ADDITIONAL STORM
   DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG COLD FRONT FROM NE TX INTO SE OK/WRN
   AR/NW LA AND PERHAPS SW MO LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  THIS ACTIVITY
   MAY EVOLVE...IN PART...FROM CURRENT CONVECTION/STORMS NOW OVER NW
   TX.  THE LATTER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE W TX UPR
   TROUGH.  CONTINUED NE MOTION OF UPR TROUGH/FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
   COINCIDE WITH MAX HEATING TIME ALONG STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT IN ERN
   OK/NE TX.  STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF UPR JET
   AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO
   LOW 60S/ SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
   HAIL/HIGH WIND.
   
   ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN RGN...
   500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW OFF THE ORE COAST...SHOULD MOVE
   QUICKLY E INTO THE PAC NW THIS AFTN.  LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TURN
   ONSHORE...WITH A MARINE PUSH MOVING THROUGH THE CASCADES AND INTO
   ERN WA/ORE DURING PEAK HEATING.  MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...
   ...RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW FAST-MOVING TSTM LINE
   SEGMENTS WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WIND/HAIL.  ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
   LARGELY DIURNAL AND WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
   
   ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 04/29/2006
   
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