May 1, 2006 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon May 1 06:06:14 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20060501 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20060501 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20060501 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20060501 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 010603
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0103 AM CDT MON MAY 01 2006
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO NCNTRL
   TX...
   
   ...MID MS/OH VALLEY...
   
   BROAD TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL U.S. MONDAY AS UPPER
   RIDGE HOLDS ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...AND ACROSS THE SWRN
   U.S.  TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PLAY IMPORTANT ROLES IN
   CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION DURING THE PERIOD...INITIALLY OVER THE OH
   VALLEY...THEN LATER ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY.
   
   EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT
   UPPER VORT ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER WHICH WILL LIFT/SHEAR ENEWD ALONG
   THE OH RIVER VALLEY BY LATE MORNING.  THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY
   WEAKEN AS UPSTREAM HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS STATES. EVEN SO THIS LEAD
   FEATURE WILL LIKELY AID RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD OVER ERN MO/IL WHICH SHOULD INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON
   HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS WITHIN VEERED SWLY FLOW REGIME.  JUST
   DOWNSTREAM...IT APPEARS PSEUDO WARM FRONT-TYPE BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT
   NEWD IN RESPONSE TO EJECTING SHORTWAVE MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT OF AN
   ELY COMPONENT AND FOCUSED CONVERGENCE FOR ASCENT FROM CNTRL IL INTO
   SERN IN.  MUCH WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL BE NOTED TO THE NORTH-EAST OF
   THIS ZONE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...MOSTLY
   IN THE LOW-MID 50S...COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MUCAPE VALUES
   ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
   STRONGER ACROSS THIS REGION MONDAY THAN ON SUNDAY AND SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES SEEM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS
   BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT CLUSTERS COULD EVOLVE FORCING STORM MODE TO
   TRANSITION INTO POSSIBLE LEWP-TYPE ECHOES.
   
   A COMPLICATING FACTOR IN STORM EVOLUTION ACROSS THIS REGION IS THE
   WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AROUND MID DAY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK
   SUBSIDENCE BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
   LATE AFTERNOON.  REGARDLESS...ANY LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT BECOMES FOCUSED AS MID
   LEVEL JET INCREASES OVER SRN MO.  SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
   SHOULD EVOLVE AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY DURING THE
   EVENING HOURS...FINALLY SPREADING INTO SWRN OH/CNTRL KY LATE IN THE
   PERIOD.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
   THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS...
   
   SFC WIND SHIFT WILL EASE SWD ACROSS OK INTO NWRN TX LATER MONDAY. 
   THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHORTLY AFTER
   PEAK HEATING INTO THE EARLY EVENING WHEN SFC PARCELS APPROACH THEIR
   CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.  WEAK CAP WILL LIKELY HOLD WARM SECTOR FROM
   FREELY CONVECTING THUS CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
   NECESSARY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NCNTRL TX
   INTO ERN OK NEAR SUNSET.  INCREASING LLJ ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AFTER
   DARK MAY ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD NEWD INTO AR DURING THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS.  LARGE HAIL IS THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT WITH
   THIS ACTIVITY.
   
   ..DARROW.. 05/01/2006
   
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