SPC AC 071631
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1131 AM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006
   
   VALID 071630Z - 081200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM SE AL TO
   SRN SC....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
   TONIGHT FROM W TX TO CENTRAL NEB....
   
   ...SE STATES TODAY...
   CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN A BROKEN BAND ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
   FROM SE LA ACROSS SRN MS/AL INTO GA...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID
   LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER NRN MS/AL.  SURFACE HEATING/
   DESTABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW SOME OF THESE STORMS TO INTENSIFY
   DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SE AL AND CENTRAL/S GA AND SRN SC. 
   EXPECT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL TO
   INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...IN AN ENVIRONMENT
   OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ AND MODEST
   DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR /0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KT/.
   
   ...W TX TO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
   MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSES AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW AN ELONGATED
   MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM NW NM/CO TO MT THAT IS MOVING EWD TOWARD THE
   HIGH PLAINS.  THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
   COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH FARTHER
   S FROM WRN NEB ACROSS ERN CO TO ERN NM.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
   ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN
   DAKOTAS TO THE MID 50S INTO THE TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON E OF THE
   SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S W
   OF THE MORNING STRATUS.  THE NET RESULT WILL BE MLCAPE VALUES OF
   500-1000 J/KG IN A NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS THE WRN PLAINS.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ALONG
   THE COLD FRONT AND LEE TROUGH...WITH THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND
   VERTICAL SHEAR FROM NEB SWD SUPPORTING A SOMEWHAT GREATER THREAT FOR
   LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS COMPARED TO THE DAKOTAS.  MUCH OF THIS
   ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNAL WITH A DECREASING SEVERE THREAT BY LATE
   EVENING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE S AND THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A 30-35 KT LLJ MAY ALLOW A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO
   PERSIST OVERNIGHT INVOF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SW OK/NW TX.
   
   ...SW TX THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT...
   A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NRN BAJA...THOUGH THIS
   TROUGH SHOULD DRIFT SEWD THROUGH TONIGHT AND REMAIN W OF TX. 
   STILL...L0W-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS OF 60-68/ IS SPREADING NWWD
   ALONG THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE AND LOWER PECOS VALLEYS...AND THE 12Z
   DRT/MAF SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BECOME
   WEAK ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW-MID 80S.  A FEW STORMS
   MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW TX AND W/SW OF DRT...AND THIS
   CONVECTION SHOULD THEN MOVE GENERALLY EWD.  THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP AS PREVIOUS DAYS OVER THIS AREA...MLCAPE OF
   1000-2000 J/KG IS STILL EXPECTED IN COMBINATION WITH VERTICAL SHEAR
   SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
   THREAT...WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS.
   
   ..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 05/07/2006
   
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