SPC AC 151245
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0745 AM CDT MON MAY 15 2006
   
   VALID 151300Z - 161200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN FL
   PENINSULA...
   
   ...EASTERN FL PENINSULA...
   PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
   THROUGH TODAY...WITH MAIN SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS
   SOUTHERN GA/NORTH FL AND ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.  AIR MASS ALONG
   AND SOUTH OF FRONT WILL BE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
   AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1500 J/KG.  DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
   THE FL PENINSULA SHOULD LIMIT INLAND PROGRESS OF EAST COAST SEA
   BREEZE...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.  FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
   BE PRESENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL/DAMAGING
   WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT DUE TO BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN
   INTENSITY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
   
   ...AZ/NM...
   WESTERN PERIPHERY OF NORTHERN MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDS ALONG THE
   ROCKIES INTO EASTERN AZ/WESTERN NM.  SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LEVEL
   MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT IN THIS REGION
   FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE WEAK
   VERTICAL SHEAR...ISOLATED STRONG CELLS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND
   HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.  ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED IN
   THIS REGION TODAY.
   
   ...EASTERN NC...
   MORNING CLOUDINESS OVER EASTERN NC WILL LIKELY ERODE THIS
   AFTERNOON...ALLOWING AIR MASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF
   SURFACE COLD FRONT.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 18Z
   OVER EASTERN NC...MOVING OFFSHORE BEFORE 00Z.  THIS REGION WILL BE
   BENEATH 70 KNOT MID LEVEL JET MAX...WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
   VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS.  AREAL COVERAGE MAY BE
   LIMITED...BUT GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FROM ANY SUSTAINED
   STORM IN THIS REGION TODAY.
   
   ..HART/CROSBIE.. 05/15/2006
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z