May 18, 2006 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu May 18 01:00:20 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20060518 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20060518 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20060518 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20060518 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 180057
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0757 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2006
   
   VALID 180100Z - 181200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL IL TO WRN PA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BASIC SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT FEATURES WRN CONUS RIDGE -- WHICH IS
   PART OF REX BLOCK INVOLVING BAJA CA CYCLONE...AND ERN TROUGH. 
   STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
   OVER WI/LM -- IS FCST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS LOWER MI AND DEVELOP INTO
   DISCRETE MIDLEVEL LOW OVERNIGHT.  MEANWHILE SFC CYCLONE OVER ONT/QUE
   BORDER WILL RETROGRADE WWD TO BECOME MORE VERTICALLY STACKED WITH
   MID/UPPER LOW. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY ANALYZED FROM SRN
   ONT SWWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS IL/INDIANA -- WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
   SEWD INTO LOWER-MIDDLE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION...
   REF WW 362 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST
   DEVELOPMENTS.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED COLD MIDLEVEL AIR
   AHEAD OF TROUGH -- I.E. -17 TO -18 DEG C AT 500 MB -- ARE EXPECTED
   TO SHIFT EWD AND SOMEWHAT SWD OVER OUTLOOK AREA.  THIS WILL COMBINE
   WITH LOW LEVEL WAA ABOVE SFC HELP TO MAINTAIN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT OVER OH VALLEY
   REGION...DESPITE DIABATICALLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER.  SEVERE WIND
   POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME...HOWEVER HAIL AND OCCASIONAL
   STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM MOST INTENSE CELLS
   THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.
   
   ...CA...
   SUBTLE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION IS EVIDENT IN ANIMATIONS OF BOTH
   MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND MIDLEVEL VWP PLOTS OVER THIS
   REGION...MOVING NNWWD APPROXIMATELY 10-15 KT ACROSS CENTRAL CA
   BETWEEN FAT-MRY.  WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER
   2-3 HOURS ACROSS SIERRAS GENERALLY N OF LINE FROM BIH-FAT...ROUGHLY
   ALONG AND N OF LATITUDE OF MOST FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   ESTIMATED FROM THAT TROUGH.  RUC APPEARS TO BE OVERESTIMATING MLCAPE
   BY UP TO 800 J/KG OVER THIS REGION WITH SFC THETAE TOO HIGH FOR
   MODEL ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER MODIFIED RNO RAOB SUGGESTS LEGITIMATE
   300-500 J/KG MLCAPES AMIDST INVERTED-V PROFILES SUITABLE FOR
   MAINTAINING INTENSITY TO SFC OF ANY STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS OR HAIL
   GENERATED ALOFT.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/18/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z