SPC AC 221254
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT MON MAY 22 2006
VALID 221300Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CNTRL RCKYS/HI PLNS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE TN VLY AND
SOUTHEAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND RCKYS TODAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
OVER SRN CA/NRN BAJA IS EJECTED RAPIDLY NEWD BY DEEP LOW OFF THE BC
CST. EJECTING SYSTEM WILL INDUCE LEE TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL/NRN
HI PLNS...WITH SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG THE TROUGH OVER
S CNTRL MT TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
IN THE EAST...A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL MAINTAIN BROADER SCALE
TROUGH OVER THE GRT LKS/NEW ENG....WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
REMAINING MORE OR LESS STATIONARY FROM THE TN VLY TO THE SC CST.
...FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO CNTRL RCKYS/CNTRL HI PLNS...
SEVERAL BANDS OF TSTMS EXPECTED TO PRECEDE AND POSSIBLY ACCOMPANY
SRN CA SYSTEM AS IT MOVES E/NE ACROSS THE SRN/ERN GRT BASIN AND INTO
THE CNTRL RCKYS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. GIVEN STRONG BACKGROUND WIND
FIELD /500 MB SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 50 KTS/...INVERTED VEE
SOUNDINGS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND SUSTAINED FORCING FOR
ASCENT...SOME OF THE STORM BANDS MAY CONTAIN BOTH LARGE AND SMALL
SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND.
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MORE DYNAMICALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION...OTHER
STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT IN CONFLUENT
...WEAKLY UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE CO/SRN WY FRONT RANGE EWD
INTO THE CNTRL HI PLNS OF ERN CO/SE WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE.
DEVELOPMENT MAY BE MODULATED...AND POSSIBLY ENHANCED...INVOF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXES LEFT BY OVERNIGHT MCS IN
KS. GIVEN INCREASINGLY STRONG WIND FIELDS...AND PRESENCE OF
SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY FASTER
MOVING STORMS ARRIVING FROM THE WRN/SRN CO. THE RESULTING CLUSTERS
SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY E IN A DIMINISHING STATE INTO PARTS OF NRN
KS AND WRN/CNTRL NEB EARLY TUESDAY.
...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
MODERATE SURFACE HEATING OF STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT MAY YIELD
ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS OVER WRN ID AND
ERN WA/ORE. THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN EJECTING SYSTEM TO
THE S...AND NEARLY STATIONARY LOW OFF THE BC/WA CST. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY REMAIN STRONG INTO THE NIGHT IN NRN ID.
...TN VLY TO SC CST...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE DIURNAL STORMS EXPECTED ALONG
STALLED FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST. BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN PARALLEL TO
MODERATE DEEP WNWLY SHEAR. DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE DOMINATED BY STORM-SCALE AND...POSSIBLY...ONCE AGAIN
BY OROGRAPHIC FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN APLCNS. CLOUDS OVER
THE SC MIDLANDS WILL LIMIT LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION IN THAT REGION.
BUT AREA SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED...MULTICELL FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTERS
WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND...WITH INITIATION FAVORED IN SPOTS RECEIVING
MORE SUN.
..CORFIDI/GRAMS.. 05/22/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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