SPC AC 311609
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT WED MAY 31 2006
VALID 311630Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ND/SD AND MN...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO
NY/VT...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...WHILE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
DOMINANT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH. PRIMARY AREAS OF STRONG
CONVECTION TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES...PARTS OF MN/DAKOTAS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...AND ALONG AXIS FROM MID MS VALLEY INTO VT.
...CO/NM FRONT RANGE...
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE TODAY OVER EASTERN CO/NM.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AIR MASS
TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND MLCAPE
VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THROUGHOUT THIS AREA SHOW FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RATHER WEAK. ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KS AND PARTS
OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
...MN/DAKOTAS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN SD. THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MN THIS EVENING.
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING OVER THIS
AREA...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE 50S. HOWEVER...FORCING
FOR UPWARD MOTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE SLIGHT RISK AREA LATER TODAY
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
...VT/NY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST HAS BEGUN TO FLATTEN TODAY...WITH
WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PRESENT ACROSS NY INTO NEW ENGLAND. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY HINTS AT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
ONTARIO...WHICH MAY HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...STRONG
HEATING AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...ALONG WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES BELOW -10C WILL DESTABILIZE AIR MASS AND LEAD TO
SCATTERED STORMS. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
CELLS.
...SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY...
SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHEAST
LOWER MI. POCKETS OF STRONG HEATING ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
FRONT...LEADING TO MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. DESPITE WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE A FEW STRONG
STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET.
..HART/GRAMS.. 05/31/2006
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