SPC AC 010542
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT THU JUN 01 2006
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NERN
U.S....
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE OH VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
WHILE BROAD TROUGHING SETTLES INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL MAINTAIN WEAK SYNOPTIC
FRONTAL ZONE FROM PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...SWWD ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE SFC WIND SHIFT WILL BE QUITE
DIFFUSE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASILY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY MODULATED SOMEWHAT BY PREVIOUS DAYTIME
CONVECTION AND RESULTANT BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATIONS.
...NERN U.S...
UPPER HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AHEAD OF TROUGH THAT WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY THURSDAY. WHILE STRONGER UPPER FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF ASSOCIATED SFC
BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP ACROSS
WARM SECTOR FOR SUSTAINING MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS. OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
ACROSS NY WERE QUITE MOIST AT 01/00Z WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WELL IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE THURSDAY ARE EQUALLY MOIST AND SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING.
ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION SHOULD BE MINIMIZED...LOCALLY STRONG
DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ESEWD MOVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS.
...LOWER OH VALLEY...
VERY MOIST PROFILES EXIST EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY REGION. 00Z MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT WEAK CIRCULATION OVER MO WILL DRIFT EWD ENHANCING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SERN
MO/SRN IL INTO WRN KY. VERY MOIST PROFILES SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM
ELEMENTS WILL MOST LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. DIURNAL HEATING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE WILL
GREATLY ENHANCE ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.
...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ALTHOUGH UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...AIRMASS
IS SUFFICIENTLY MOIST/COOL THROUGH A DEEP LAYER FOR ANOTHER EPISODE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY. CAP HAS YET TO
STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHILE
NW ORIENTED SHEAR VECTORS SHOULD ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
PROPAGATE STRONGLY SOUTH...OR PERHAPS SWWD OVER NERN NM. THIS
COMPONENT WOULD FAVOR STORM INFLOW AND PERHAPS ENHANCE SEVERE
THREAT...MAINLY LARGE HAIL.
..DARROW/CROSBIE.. 06/01/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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