Jun 13, 2006 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 13 12:32:17 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20060613 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20060613 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20060613 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20060613 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 131228
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0728 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006
   
   VALID 131300Z - 141200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND WRN
   MT...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FL INTO SRN GA/SRN SC...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL SD...
   
   ...NRN ROCKIES INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WRN MT...
   UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS AMPLIFIED OVER THE PAC NW.  ASSOCIATED
   50+ KT SLY MID LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE GREAT BASIN
   AND NOSE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  LAPSE RATES
   REMAIN STEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM.
    THIS WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION IN UPDRAFTS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
   WITHIN MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. 
   THOUGH OVERNIGHT MODELS APPEAR TOO AGGRESSIVE IN FORECASTING LOWER
   60F SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO WRN MT TODAY...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS
   UTILIZING MID 50F DEW POINTS STILL GENERATE 2000 J/KG MLCAPE BY 21Z.
    IN ADDITION...SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NWD ACROSS
   CENTRAL/SRN ID AND INTO WRN MT INCREASING CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL
   SHEAR ALONG AND JUST EAST OF ITS TRACK.  APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL
   BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS STORMS INCREASE BY
   THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL ID/WRN
   MT...AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL MT THROUGH
   THE EARLY EVENING.  HAIL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE QUITE LARGE...ALONG
   WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALL EXPECTED TO
   ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS TODAY.
   
   ...WRN/CENTRAL SD...
   RUC AND NAM/NAMP CONTINUE TO GENERATE CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG
   HEATING ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO STALL E-W ACROSS SD
   TODAY. 4KM NMM/WRF ALSO LIKES THIS SOLUTION.  APPEARS
   HEATING...CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE MAY ALLOW CAP TO BREAK NEAR THE
   BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS HOLD NEAR
   60F JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT.  FORECAST SHEAR WILL BE
   MARGINAL BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD THIS ACTIVITY
   ROOT INTO ESELY SURFACE WINDS WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 35-40 KT. 
   FARTHER EAST...DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE QUESTIONABLE ALONG
   THE FRONT.  HOWEVER...EXIT REGION OF 30-40 KT SLY LLJ SHOULD ALLOW A
   FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST EWD OUT OF WRN SD OR
   DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING INTO CENTRAL SD. 
   STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED AFTER DARK WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF
   LARGE HAIL.
   
   ...FL INTO THE COASTAL SC...
   T.S. ALBERTO APPEARS TO BE MAKING LANDFALL THIS MORNING NEAR THE FL
   BIG BEND REGION...WITH LITTLE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION NEAR THE STORM
   CENTER OVERNIGHT.  EXCEPTION IS ALONG WRN PORTION OF CIRCULATION IN
   THE PAST FEW HOURS.  EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS
   OVERSPREADING NRN FL INTO SRN GA JUST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.  APPEARS
   LINE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS NOW EXTENDING FROM E-CENTRAL INTO
   SWRN FL IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CONVERGENCE AXIS WITH WINDS VEERING
   TO SWLY IN ITS WAKE OVER W-CENTRAL FL. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR
   LOW LEVEL ROTATION MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE MID MORNING.
   OTHERWISE...PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY PERSIST INTO
   NRN FL AND SRN GA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO COASTAL SC LATER THIS
   MORNING SHOULD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE AHEAD OF ALBERTO. 
   HERE...LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS ENHANCED DUE TO ENELY SURFACE WINDS
   NORTHEAST OF ALBERTO/S CENTER.
   
   ...NRN GREAT BASIN...
   HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ACROSS NRN NV LATE TODAY AND
   SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD INTO NRN UT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS DEEP
   ASCENT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING
   MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SMALL AREA OF
   MLCAPE WILL DEVELOP ABOVE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SUPPORTING 
   A THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL FROM
   STRONGER CORES.
   
   ...PARTS OF SERN TX...
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF SE TX THIS
   PERIOD...AS WEAK VORT MAX NOW OVER NRN TX MOVES SSEWD INTO THIS
   REGION.  WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE FORECAST...AND 30 TO
   35 KT NLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS...LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL OR
   WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS MAY EVOLVE -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT
   FOR HAIL OR LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS.  THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
   THROUGH THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.
   
   ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 06/13/2006
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z