Jun 22, 2006 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jun 22 16:12:16 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the middle mississippi and ohio valleys this afternoon and tonight.   Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic
20060622 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20060622 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20060622 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20060622 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 221548
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1048 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006
   
   VALID 221630Z - 231200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF MID MS AND MUCH OF
   OHIO VALLEYS...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
   AND TX/OK PANHANDLE...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD
   ACROSS MID MS VALLEY TO NY/PA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD TROUGH CENTRAL U.S. WITH UPPER HIGH PARKED OVER CA. WHILE
   STRONGEST WIND FIELDS REMAIN ACROSS NRN STATES...A COUPLE MID
   IMPULSES HAVE EMERGED FROM WEDNESDAYS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  MCV
   TRACKING EWD ACROSS NRN IL CURRENTLY DRIVING EARLY STORM DEVELOPMENT
   THAT AREA. UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH ERN KS WILL MOVE ACROSS MO AND
   MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK TROUGH IN THE WNWLY FLOW
   CURRENTLY CROSSING CENTRAL ROCKIES...NOTED IN W/V IMAGERY...WILL
   ENHANCE SHEAR AND STORM POTENTIAL E SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ...MID MS AND OH VALLEY...
   MORNING SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICT A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS IN PLACE TO THE S AND E OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES THAT EXTEND
   FROM LWR MI SWWD ACROSS NRN IL TO MO. WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
   7C/KM AND MUCH OF AREA RECEIVING STRONG HEATING...MLCAPES OF 3000
   J/KG WILL BE COMMON BY MID AFTERNOON.  THE ENHANCED MID LEVEL SHEAR
   AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TWO MID LEVEL IMPULSES CENTRAL
   U.S. SUPPORT A VERY ACTIVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DAY FROM MID MS
   VALLEY EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY.  SUFFICIENT SHEAR COUPLED WITH THE
   INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLS AMD ORGANIZED LINES WITH
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARY THREAT.  ISOLATED TORNADOS
   COULD OCCUR IN FAVORABLY ENHANCED SHEAR VICINITY BOUNDARIES.
   
   FURTHER E ACROSS PA/NY CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING WHICH WILL ALLOW
   STRONG DESTABILIZATION AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURES CONTINUES SPREADING E.
    30-35 KT OF SHEAR AND MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 2000 J/KG SUFFICIENT FOR
   SEVERE POTENTIAL...WIND/HAIL...WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS WORKED WWD TO FRONT RANGE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
   WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL TROUGH BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
   SUPPORT AN ACTIVE SEVERE DAY FROM ERN CO SEWD TO TX/OK PANHANDLES. 
   NEAR FULL HEATING WILL ALLOW STORM INITIATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON
   HIGHER TERRAIN AS MLCAPES INCREASE TO 2000 J/KG.  STORMS THEN WILL
   MOVE E/SEWD INTO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE VEERING SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
   AND STRONGER INSTABILITY.  SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED WITH LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARY THREAT.  HOWEVER SHEAR AND FAVORABLY LOW
   LFC'S SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT AS WELL.  SEVERE THREAT WILL
   PROPAGATE SEWD AND CONTINUE AFTER DARK.
   
   ...SERN AZ...
   HAVE ADDED ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT THIS AREA AS PW'S HAVE
   INCREASED TO NEAR AN INCH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAIN.  STORMS OVER
   HIGHER TERRAIN WILL PROPAGATE INTO DESERTS VALLEYS LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON AND WITH DCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS ARE
   LIKELY.
   
   ..HALES/GUYER.. 06/22/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z