SPC AC 251940
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2006
VALID 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER
MS VLY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...
...MID/UPR MS VLY...
CENTER OF THE UPR LOW AND ASSOCD COLD POCKET ALOFT /H5 TEMPERATURE
AOB MINUS 15 DEG C/ WERE ROTATING ACROSS THE MID/UPR MS VLY AT PEAK
HEATING. SFC DEW POINTS AROUND 60 DEG F AND H7-H5 LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7 DEG C/KM WERE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG FROM
SCNTRL WI SWWD INTO WRN IL AND NRN MO.
MULTIPLE BANDS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE STRONGEST VCNTY THE COLD FRONT NEARING THE IA/IL
MS RVR VCNTY SWWD INTO NRN MO. A SECONDARY MAX ARCS FROM A LOW OVER
SWRN WI INTO NRN IL.
VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. BUT...STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE
COMPENSATING AND SHORT-LIVED MULTICELL STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE RISKS FOR
BRIEF WEAK TORNADOES WITHIN THE RICH AMBIENT VORTICITY/LARGE
LOW-LEVEL CAPE ENVIRONMENT...WITH 0-3 KM CAPES OF 100-150 J/KG
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN WI INTO NRN IL. TORNADOES WILL PROBABLY BE
MOST LIKELY WITH TSTMS VCNTY THE ARCING BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT ACROSS
SRN WI INTO NRN IL.
FARTHER S ACROSS MO AND SRN IL....OVERALL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
WEAKER...BUT ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL SUPPORT SMALL TSTM CLUSTERS THAT
MAY GIVE LOCAL HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
STRONGER DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS NERN NM AND
SRN CO BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING SWD ALONG THE HIGHER
PLAINS. TSTMS HAVE BEEN FAVORING THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND GIVEN
STRONGER HEATING SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH ERN NM AND INCREASING
NLY TRAJECTORIES...A CLUSTER OR TWO OF TSTMS MAY EVOLVE INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS THIS EVE.
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUSTAINED STORMS/BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH RISKS FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
...SRN ATLANTIC COAST...
SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EVE ON NRN FRINGE OF AN UPPER LOW ROTATING WNWWD THROUGH
THE NRN BAHAMAS. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN VICINITY OF
COASTAL TROUGH...AND PRESENCE OF RICH MOISTURE...MAY FOSTER
LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION/A POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADO/WATERSPOUT IN
STRONGER CELLS.
..RACY/GUYER/EVANS.. 06/25/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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