SPC AC 262001
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006
VALID 262000Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS
VLY AND NRN PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LWR OH
VLY AND MIDWEST...
...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VLY...
STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SWD INTO SRN MANT AT
MID-AFTN. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL MASS CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...NUMEROUS
TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NWRN ONT...SERN MANT SWD INTO ERN ND AND
NRN MN WITHIN STEEPENING LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. H5 TEMPERATURES
AOB MINUS 15 DEG C ATOP MID 50S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR WAS NOT
TERRIBLY STRONG...BUT MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES WAS SUPPORTING LARGE
HAIL PRODUCTION. TSTMS COULD ALSO BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE INCREASING
UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW AND EVOLVE INTO SMALL-SCALE BOWS GIVING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UNTIL SUNSET.
...LWR OH VLY/MIDWEST...
UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE MAKING AN ADVERTISED TURN TO THE EAST PER
AFTN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WAS ALSO
ROTATING EWD ATOP A WARM AND MODESTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH
MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG. TSTMS HAVE BEEN FAVORING THE STRONGER
CONVERGENCE/SFC TROUGH ALONG THE IL/IND BORDER...BUT OTHER STORMS
HAVE BEEN FORMING UPSTREAM BENEATH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES/
STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT. VERTICAL SHEAR WAS GENERALLY LESS THAN
30 KTS AND ANY INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS.
LANDSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE AFTER
DARK.
...CAROLINAS TO MID ATLANTIC STATES...
TROPICAL CONVEYOR BELT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A DEEP AND MOIST
TROPOSPHERE ACROSS THE ERN STATES. SLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...WEAK
CINH AND FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
QUASI-STATIONARY BANDS OF BACK-BUILDING TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING.
ISOLD TSTM LINE SEGMENTS WILL BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE MEAN FLOW AND
COULD BOW GIVING LOCAL DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL TO PARTS OF THE SERN
COAST. BUT...THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW TORNADO PROBABILITY...MAINLY
THIS AFTN. LATER TONIGHT...AS THE NRN BAHAMAS UPPER WAVE MIGRATES
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND COULD
BRING A LATE NIGHT RISK OF ISOLD TORNADO TO PARTS OF THE SERN COAST.
...ERN/AZ/NM/SRN CO...
WEAK N/NELY MID-LEVEL FLOW ON FRINGE OF GRT BASIN UPR RIDGE WILL
FAVOR S/SW PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NM/ERN AZ LATE THIS AFTN/EVE. PWATS HAVE INCREASED
DURING THE PAST 24-HRS. THUS...TSTMS MAY THRIVE INTO THE
VLYS...PRODUCING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL.
..RACY.. 06/26/2006
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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