Jul 14, 2006 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jul 14 12:26:11 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20060714 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20060714 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20060714 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20060714 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 141222
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0722 AM CDT FRI JUL 14 2006
   
   VALID 141300Z - 151200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE GREAT LAKES STATES....
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN WI/NWRN IL...IS
   FORECAST TO MOVE ESEWD THROUGH THE DAY AND EXTEND FROM SRN LOWER MI
   SWWD INTO INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON. RIDGE OVER THE SWRN STATES WILL
   BUILD NWD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE
   WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
   OVER LOWER MI...WITH A WEAK TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD INTO
   SRN MO.
   
   ...GREAT LAKE STATES...
   CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH WI THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE
   DAY AND MAY GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY
   WARMING AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SRN LOWER MI.
   STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO REDEVELOP WITHIN FORCING LOCATED
   AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND AN MCV MOVING EWD OUT OF CENTRAL MO INTO
   IL AND INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
   UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPES FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG
   ACROSS THIS REGION BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS
   ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 30 KT...MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS
   ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ONLY
   20-25KT. HOWEVER...THIS SHEAR AND THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WOULD
   SUPPORT SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WITH SEVERE WIND/HAIL EVENTS. STORMS
   SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   STABILIZES.
   
   ...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO OZARK PLATEAU...
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH SLOWLY WEAKENING CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM 
   CENTRAL AR WWD INTO CENTRAL/NWRN OK. A RELATIVELY STRONG MESO-HIGH
   ASSOCIATED WAS PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY SWD...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM
   SRN AR WWD INTO NERN TX...AND THEN NWWD INTO SWRN OK/TX PANHANDLE
   BEFORE STALLING LATER THIS MORNING. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
   BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR RENEWED CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE
   PARTICULARLY STRONG...DUE TO WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...DEEP
   MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH 30-40 DEGREE SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW
   POINT SPREADS...MAY SUPPORT A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR SHORT LIVED MICRO
   BURSTS.
   
   ...TN/UPPER OH VALLEYS EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...
   STRONG HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE
   VALUES TO RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. DESPITE THE LACK OF
   DYNAMICAL FORCING...A WEAK CAP SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
   CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP. WEAK WINDS/SHEAR WILL RESULT IN DISORGANIZED
   STORMS...BUT STRONG TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN THE HEAVY RAIN
   CORES AND HOT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SHORT
   LIVED MICROBURSTS.
   
   ..IMY.. 07/14/2006
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z