Jul 14, 2006 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jul 14 20:02:14 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20060714 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20060714 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20060714 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20060714 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 141958
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2006
   
   VALID 142000Z - 151200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES
   REGION/OH VALLEY...
   
   ...OH VALLEY REGION...
   THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM SRN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
   GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF UPPER
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS EVOLVED ACROSS THIS
   REGION...NEAR AND AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   NOW EXTENDING FROM INDIANA ACROSS SRN IL INTO CENTRAL AR.
   
   THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS LIMITED...QUASI-UNIDIRECTIONAL LOWER TO
   MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW NEAR 30 KT IS SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUED THREAT
   FOR LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL -- PRIMARILY WITHIN
   STRONGER MULTICELL CLUSTERS.  GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST
   ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...AHEAD OF MCV WHERE DEWPOINTS IN
   THE MID TO UPPER 70S COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE
   LOW 90S ARE YIELDING 2500 TO 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE.  WITH THREAT
   LARGELY DIURNAL IN NATURE...EXPECT STORMS/SEVERE POTENTIAL TO
   DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
   
   LESSER SEVERE THREAT EXTENDS NWD INTO MI AS WELL AS ESEWD ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE VA/NC COASTS...WHERE LESSER INSTABILITY
   AND WEAKER SHEAR SUGGEST MORE ISOLATED/PULSE-TYPE STORMS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 07/14/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z