SPC AC 141958
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2006
VALID 142000Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION/OH VALLEY...
...OH VALLEY REGION...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM SRN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF UPPER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS EVOLVED ACROSS THIS
REGION...NEAR AND AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
NOW EXTENDING FROM INDIANA ACROSS SRN IL INTO CENTRAL AR.
THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS LIMITED...QUASI-UNIDIRECTIONAL LOWER TO
MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW NEAR 30 KT IS SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL -- PRIMARILY WITHIN
STRONGER MULTICELL CLUSTERS. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST
ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...AHEAD OF MCV WHERE DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOW 90S ARE YIELDING 2500 TO 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. WITH THREAT
LARGELY DIURNAL IN NATURE...EXPECT STORMS/SEVERE POTENTIAL TO
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
LESSER SEVERE THREAT EXTENDS NWD INTO MI AS WELL AS ESEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE VA/NC COASTS...WHERE LESSER INSTABILITY
AND WEAKER SHEAR SUGGEST MORE ISOLATED/PULSE-TYPE STORMS.
..GOSS.. 07/14/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
|