SPC AC 100052
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT WED AUG 09 2006
VALID 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TO
SRN LAKE MI...
...NRN PLAINS...
TWO DISTINCT UPPER VORT MAXIMA/SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS MT
AND ND ARE FOCUSING DEEP CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING. LEAD TROUGH
AXIS IS NOW EAST OF BIS AND TURNING SEWD ON FRONT SIDE OF PLAINS
RIDGE. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS INSTABILITY HAS YET TO BE
OVERTURNED. LATEST THINKING IS SCATTERED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD EVOLUTION OVER SERN ND BEFORE SPREADING INTO
NERN SD/WCNTRL MN...POSSIBLY AS AN MCS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS SEEM THE GREATEST SEVERE RISKS.
UPSTREAM OVER NERN MT...HIGH BASED CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY
ENCOUNTERED MUCH COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER INFLOW THAT IS FORCING ITS
WAY WWD DUE TO STRENGTHENING GRADIENT FLOW OVER ND. STEEP LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT OVER CNTRL MT HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED GREATLY TO
UPDRAFT INTENSITY OVER THIS REGION. HOWEVER...INFLOW LAYER FOR THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BE DISRUPTED IN THE SHORT TERM AS COOLER LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES ARE INGESTED. IF ACTIVITY CAN TRANSITION ITS UPDRAFT
SOURCE INTO MOIST ELY FLOW THEN THIS CONVECTION MAY EXPERIENCE
INTENSIFICATION.
...CNTRL PLAINS TO LOWER LAKE MI...
CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS SRN SD
INTO EXTREME NRN NEB BENEATH WEAK WLY FLOW ON NRN SIDE OF UPPER
RIDGE. LATER THIS EVENING...VEERING LLJ AND LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE
ACROSS IA INTO NRN IL WILL ALLOW AN EWD EXPANSION OF THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX. ADDITIONALLY...WARM ADVECTION APPEARS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE
FOR RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN WI. THIS
CONVECTION MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT SPREADS SEWD
TOWARD SRN LAKE MI. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
..DARROW.. 08/10/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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