SPC AC 110058
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006
VALID 110100Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING ACROSS CNTRL SD THIS
EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK UPPER VORT THAT IS NOW DIGGING SEWD
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROPAGATING INTO REGION
THAT IS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
ADDITIONALLY...WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALONG PERIPHERY OF SFC
ANTICYCLONE MAY ENHANCE UPWARD DEVELOPMENT AS COMPLEX MOVES SEWD
ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY INTO NRN/NERN NEB AND NWRN IA LATER THIS
EVENING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST AN EXPANDING PRECIPITATION
SHIELD IN THE WAKE OF STRONGER STORMS OVER HAND/HYDE COUNTIES SD.
IF COLD POOL CAN INTENSIFY THIS MAY ALSO AID PROPAGATIONAL
COMPONENT...DESPITE WEAK LOW LEVEL INFLOW. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS EVOLVING MCS WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS...
LARGE MCS CONTINUES ITS SEWD MOVEMENT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS
EVENING. WEAK MVC MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN COMPLEX OVER CNTRL
KY...HOWEVER THIS FEATURE IS NOT PARTICULARLY WELL DEFINED. LATEST
THINKING IS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY GRADUALLY WANE IN INTENSITY
OVER SRN TN AND THE NRN GULF STATES...PARTLY DUE TO EARLIER
CONVECTION AND MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVE DETRIMENTAL...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE NEW UPDRAFTS WITHIN MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...ALLOWING MCS TO CONTINUE SEWD WELL INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY LESSON OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
..DARROW.. 08/11/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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