SPC AC 070555
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT THU SEP 07 2006
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP CONVECTION WILL READILY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
WEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF THE
NRN U.S. AND SERN U.S. SHORT WAVE FEATURES EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THIS
ACTIVITY ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...ALTHOUGH WELL IDENTIFIED IN
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
...NRN U.S...
WEAKENING BAND OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD SEWD ACROSS
CANADA INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE
SOUTH INTO NRN MN/LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z/8TH WITH STRONG FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ONTARIO/NRN
QUEBEC. TRAILING WIND SHIFT INTO MN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND WLY FLOW WHICH WILL LIMIT DEPTH OF ASCENT. AS A
RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO
WEAKER FORCING ACROSS THIS REGION. GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL
MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS THROUGH MID EVENING.
...SWRN U.S./CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE SWRN DESERTS INTO THE SRN ROCKIES OF
NEW MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY HAS EVOLVED WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK
UPWARD ASCENT AND LIGHT FLOW THROUGH MID LEVELS. WEAK TROUGHING
WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
ENHANCING THE PROSPECTS FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE DAY FROM AZ
INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION MAY
PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS...OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN STORM
INTENSIFICATION...WITH CONVECTION FOCUSING INITIALLY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...AND ALONG WEAK SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN CO INTO NEB.
SUNSET WILL PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.
...SERN U.S...
WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD LIFT NEWD ALONG PSEUDO STATIONARY
BOUNDARY FROM THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE FL PANHANDLE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST ACROSS THIS REGION WITH
PW/S IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. AS A RESULT...DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
EASILY DEVELOP WITHIN WEAKLY FORCED ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION. LOW
LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS TOO MEAGER TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT OF
TORNADOES ACROSS THIS REGION.
..DARROW.. 09/07/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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