Oct 3, 2006 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Oct 3 06:00:13 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20061003 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20061003 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20061003 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20061003 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 030557
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1257 AM CDT TUE OCT 03 2006
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY EWD
   ACROSS THE SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN
   PLAINS THIS PERIOD...THROUGH THE LARGE-SCALE MEAN RIDGE.  THIS
   FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD ZONE OF ENHANCED WSWLY FLOW
   /AROUND 50 KT AT MID-LEVELS/.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...BAROCLINIC ZONE IS INITIALLY FORECAST TO EXTEND
   FROM THE SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WWD ACROSS IA...AND THEN SWWD
   ACROSS WRN KS. AN INITIALLY DIFFUSE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
   EWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY...AND SHOULD RESIDE INVOF
   THE MID MO VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON.  OVERNIGHT...THIS LOW SHOULD
   DEEPEN/CONTINUE EWD...ALLOWING FRONT TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
   
   ...MID MO VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER
   PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION...LEAVING A RELATIVELY
   UNDISTURBED WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST S OF WARM FRONT. 
   RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
   YIELD MODERATE DESTABILIZATION...WITH 2000 TO 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER
   CAPE FORECAST ACROSS IA/SRN MN/SRN WI/NRN IL AND INTO LOWER MI/NWRN
   OH.  THOUGH WARM SECTOR SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED...STORM
   INITIATION IS FORECAST BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER SRN MN/CENTRAL AND SRN
   WI.  THESE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EWD INTO
   LOWER MI THROUGH THE EVENING...AND PERHAPS REACH THE LOWER GREAT
   LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED STORMS
   MAY ALSO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG COLD
   FRONT...FROM WRN IA SWWD INTO SERN NEB AND PERHAPS NERN KS.
   
   WITH 50 KT MID-LEVEL WSWLY FLOW SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE WARM
   SECTOR...SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS.  MOST
   FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD EXIST TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM
   FRONT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
   THROUGH THE EVENING.  ELSEWHERE...LESS FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL VEERING
   BUT SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
   AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS.  SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET SUPPORTS
   PERSISTENT/FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
   MIDWEST AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
   
   ..GOSS/TAYLOR.. 10/03/2006
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z