Oct 6, 2006 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Oct 6 19:36:15 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20061006 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20061006 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20061006 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20061006 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 061933
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0233 PM CDT FRI OCT 06 2006
   
   VALID 062000Z - 071200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SRN PLATEAU....
   
   ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
   MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE
   NORTH NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  SYSTEM WILL
   CONTINUE TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...AS A
   VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DIGS TO THE LEE OF
   THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
   
   IN ZONE OF STRONG DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION...
   EVOLUTION OF A SQUALL LINE APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY ACROSS WESTERN
   UTAH INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA.  THIS IS OCCURRING WHERE MID-LEVEL
   SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ALLOWED
   FOR SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING.  WHILE DESTABILIZATION IS IN
   QUESTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN...NORTH OF THE
   MOGOLLON RIM...ENVIRONMENT IN A CORRIDOR FROM NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
   THROUGH CENTRAL UTAH SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF
   UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...AIDED BY DOWNWARD
   TRANSPORT OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 70+ KT SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL JET
   STREAK NOSING INTO/THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.  STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
   WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND ISOLATED
   SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN LINE...PERHAPS AHEAD.
   
   ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE WEAKER...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN MORE MOIST AND STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER
   ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA.  SHEAR
   PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
   ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL...WHICH WILL CONTINUE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
   EVENING...BEFORE THREAT DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
   
   ...SOUTHEAST...
   FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET STREAK IS
   NOW NOSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION.  THIS IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF
   FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. WITH THE
   FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF ADVANCING OFFSHORE...INSTABILITY OVER INLAND
   AREAS WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  BUT...SOME
   HAIL/GUSTY WINDS COULD STILL ACCOMPANY LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS
   PARTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA/ EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
   
   ..KERR.. 10/06/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z