SPC AC 090043
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CDT SUN OCT 08 2006
VALID 090100Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN ROCKIES INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS...
EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD
ACROSS FAR SRN CA WITH A WEAKER LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD
THROUGH ERN NM INTO WRN TX. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ERN
OK PNHDL INTO CNTRL NM...WITH THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE
OVER NRN AZ.
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE ONGOING WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER
S-CNTRL/SERN AZ...AND NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL NM INTO
E-CNTRL NM WITHIN REGION OF ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SRN CA SYSTEM. 00Z TUS/ELP SOUNDINGS
INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THOUGH WEAKER LAPSE RATES IN THE MID-LEVELS WERE LIMITING
MLCAPES TO AOB 300-400 J/KG.
EXPECT TSTMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS REGION WITH SOME THREAT OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER THE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS BOUNDARY-LAYER
BEGINS TO COOL WITH THE LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING.
FARTHER TO THE E...CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEAD IMPULSE OVER WRN TX.
MODEST INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG/ WILL SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO...THOUGH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL
VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE A GREATER SEVERE THREAT.
THEREFORE...NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES WERE INTRODUCED.
...SC COAST...
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PRIMARY LOW CENTER IS SITUATED SE OF
CHS WITH A CLUSTER OF INTENSE TSTMS NEAR THIS CIRCULATION. THOUGH
THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SEWD OVERNIGHT...00Z CHS SOUNDING
INDICATED A MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE... SOME SMALL THREAT OF A BRIEF
TORNADO WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH ANY MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS MOVING WWD WITHIN MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT N
AND NW OF LOW CENTER.
..MEAD.. 10/09/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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