Oct 10, 2006 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Oct 10 06:00:19 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20061010 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20061010 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20061010 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20061010 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 100556
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1256 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL INTO ERN
   TX INTO WRN LA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   OPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER IS FORECAST TO
   DE-AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT RAPIDLY TRANSLATES NEWD INTO THE
   MID MS VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
   BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE SWRN DESERTS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  IN
   THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM
   WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM SWRN OR W-CNTRL TX INTO SRN MO BY LATE
   TONIGHT WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD THROUGH CNTRL/ERN TX.
   
   ...CNTRL/ERN TX INTO WRN LA...
   
   A COMPLEX FORECAST EXISTS OWING TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN ONGOING MCS
   OVER CNTRL TX AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND ITS EFFECTS
   ON AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AND EVENTUAL FRONTAL MOVEMENT.  10/00Z
   SOUNDINGS FROM THE TX COAST INDICATE THAT A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS
   HAS MOVED ONSHORE WITH LOWEST MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF AROUND 16 G/KG. 
   CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND GOES GPS DATA SHOW THIS MOISTURE
   ADVECTING NWD INTO CNTRL TX ALONG ERN EDGE OF LLJ BECOMING
   ESTABLISHED OVER WRN TX.
   
   AS MENTIONED ABOVE...STORM CLUSTERS OR AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
   10/12Z OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION...DRIVEN LARGELY BY LOW-LEVEL
   WAA REGIME AHEAD OF WEAKENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS
   AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT LAPSE RATES TO NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC
   WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO AIR
   MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG EXPECTED.  AS
   SUCH...SOME DIURNAL WEAKENING OF MCS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
   MORNING...PRIOR TO STORMS INTENSIFYING BY AFTERNOON OVER CNTRL TX
   SWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE TX COAST.
   
   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELLS/BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A
   FEW TORNADOES OWING TO PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN COUPLED WITH
   INTENSIFYING SUBTROPICAL JET.  ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO
   LA TONIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND
   PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO NEAR AND E OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY.
   
   FARTHER TO THE N OVER NERN TX INTO SERN OK AND SWRN AR...IT APPEARS
   THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED SHOULD MCS PERSIST ACROSS
   CNTRL/ERN TX AS IS BEING FORECAST.  SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS...HOWEVER THE DEGREE OF
   INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION ATTM.
   
   ..MEAD/GRAMS.. 10/10/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z