SPC AC 131602
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1102 AM CDT FRI OCT 13 2006
VALID 131630Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE DEEP OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO WILL DRIFT
EWD/NEWD THIS PERIOD WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES
FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 600 MB AND CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM GREAT LAKES MAY SUPPORT A FEW LAKE EFFECT CONVECTIVE
BANDS WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE PRIMARY THREAT AREAS
WILL BE TODAY OVER NRN LOWER AND ERN UPPER MI... DOWNSTREAM FROM AN
EMBEDDED WAVE ROTATING OVER LAKE MI...AND ACROSS ERN UPPER MI LATER
TONIGHT AS THE FETCH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BECOMES MORE NWLY.
ALSO...A PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT BAND HAS DRIFTED NW OF THE BUFFALO
AREA AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS BAND
COULD SHIFT SEWD INTO EXTREME WRN NY AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED BY
EARLY TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS TO SWLY AND
LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR DIMINISHES.
...SRN CA TO AZ THROUGH TONIGHT...
A CLOSED SRN STREAM LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TO SRN CA BY TONIGHT.
A BELT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE/ASCENT AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAPSE
RATES E/NE OF THE LOW CENTER WILL SUPPORT MID LEVEL
CONVECTION/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM INTERIOR S/SE CA
ACROSS SRN NV INTO WRN AZ THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT NEAR THE SRN CA
COAST WITH THE MID LEVEL COLD CORE.
...S TX THROUGH TONIGHT...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS DEEP S TX AND THE NW GULF
OF MEXICO...THOUGH THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR THE LOWER TX
COAST LATER TODAY. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND ONLY WEAK CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION S OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SOME SURFACE-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WIND SHIFT TODAY...AND ELEVATED CONVECTION
WITH WEAK WAA ATOP THE FRONTAL SURFACE THROUGH TONIGHT.
..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 10/13/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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