Oct 26, 2006 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Oct 26 06:04:11 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20061026 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20061026 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20061026 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20061026 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 260601
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0101 AM CDT THU OCT 26 2006
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF ERN TX/OK INTO
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   LEAD IMPULSE NOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY
   AS IT MOVES THROUGH SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND INTO CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME
   OVER THE OH VALLEY AREA. IN ITS WAKE...A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH WILL MOVE ESEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING...THEN INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. LEE
   CYCLOGENESIS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN
   FROM WRN OK THROUGH WRN TX EARLY THURSDAY AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OVER
   WRN OK. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EWD DURING THE DAY AS THE PACIFIC
   FRONT MERGES WITH IT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND EXTEND EWD FROM
   THE LOW ACROSS NRN OK. AS THE LOW SHIFTS EWD INTO THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY DURING THE EVENING...THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN
   ACROSS PARTS OF LA AND MS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MARINE BOUNDARY
   LIFTING INLAND ALONG THE LA AND MS COASTS THURSDAY EVENING.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...
   
   PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
   TO MID 60S HAS ALREADY ADVECTED AS FAR N AS CNTRL OK WITH UPPER 60S
   ACROSS N CNTRL TX. PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
   ACROSS TX INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT
   WITH MOISTURE AUGMENTED BY REMNANTS OF PAUL. A RELATIVELY NARROW
   AXIS OF INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON W OF DEEPER MOIST
   PLUME FROM THE ERN HALF OF OK SWD THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN TX.
   HERE...MODEST 6.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOW
   LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING WILL EXIST AS LOW
   CLOUDS MIX OUT IN DRY SLOT REGION. MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
   WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   PRIMARY LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
   SERN U.S. IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEAMPLIFYING LEAD IMPULSE.
   HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE AND BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
   OCCUR FROM ERN OK INTO NERN TX AS THE LOW CONSOLIDATES OVER OK. THIS
   ALONG WITH APPROACHING 90+ KT MID LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE
   SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS. STRONGEST 0-1 KM SHEAR FOR LOW LEVEL
   MESOCYCLONES AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES DURING THE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED
   JUST E OF SURFACE LOW AND NEAR WARM FRONT OVER NRN AND ERN OK OR SRN
   KS.
   
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER NRN OK/SRN KS DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ALONG AND E OF DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT AS FORCING
   FOR ASCENT ATTENDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INCREASES. VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
   ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER S
   ACROSS TX ALONG AND E OF PACIFIC FRONT. LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES IN
   THIS REGION WILL NOT BE A STRONG AS FARTHER N...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. SOME
   STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS AS THEY CONTINUE EWD INTO ERN TX DURING THE EVENING WITH
   A CONTINUING THREAT OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND. SOME WEAKENING IS
   EXPECTED AS ACTIVITY MOVES TOWARD THE LESS UNSTABLE REGIME OVER AR
   OVERNIGHT.
   
   OTHER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE
   FROM SERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK
   IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE
   MARINE FRONT WILL ADVECT NWD INTO SRN LA/MS DURING THE EVENING.
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...MAINLY
   OVERNIGHT FROM PARTS SERN TX INTO LA AND SRN MS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
   STRENGTHENS...RESULTING IN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 10/26/2006
   
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