SPC AC 110038
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 PM CST FRI NOV 10 2006
VALID 110100Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN
NEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY/SRN IL...
...UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...
PRONOUNCED SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL
DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT EWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND SEWD OVER
THE ARKLATEX AND TX GULF COAST REGIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPREADING EAST TOWARD IA/MO WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SURFACE CYCLONE TRACKING EAST ALONG A WARM
FRONT STRETCHING FROM IL/IND EWD TO OH AND WRN PA.
EVENING ANALYSIS DEPICTED A RELATIVELY NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND NEAR THE SURFACE LOW...FROM SCNTRL
IL SWWD ACROSS THE BOOTHEEL OF MO...AND THEN ACROSS MUCH OF ERN/SRN
AR...NWRN LA...AND EAST TX. STRONGER SHEAR AND FORCING WERE
JUXTAPOSED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY FROM ERN MO ACROSS CNTRL IL
WHERE PRIMARILY ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL DEEP CONVECTION COULD STILL
POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL.
FROM SCNTRL IL AND THE MO BOOTHEEL SSWWD ACROSS AR/NWRN LA AND EAST
TX...LINEAR FORCING/STRONG LIFT ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL
ACT ON STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SEVERE
TSTMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE
FORCING DO LESSEN WITH SWWD EXTENT...LIFT ALONG THE ADVANCING
BOUNDARY HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR STORM INITIATION AND UPDRAFT
PERSISTENCE ACROSS CNTRL AR INTO NWRN LA AND ERN TX THIS EVENING.
EVENING RAOBS FROM LITTLE ROCK AND SHREVEPORT INDICATE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH
HAIL...HIGH WINDS....AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.
EXPECT ONGOING QUASI-CELLULAR/SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY
EVOLVE TOWARD SQUALL LINE SEGMENTS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND
CONVECTIVE COLD POOLS DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT. TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND
AND HAIL THREAT SHOULD EXIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS STORMS MOVE
TOWARD THE MS RIVER AND THE LOWER OH VALLEY AREAS...AS WELL AS FROM
NRN LA ACROSS ERN TX. WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...PREFRONTAL
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD STABILIZE AND SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST OF THE MS
RIVER AND OFF THE UPPER TX GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT.
..CARBIN.. 11/11/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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