Dec 14, 2006 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Dec 14 16:06:09 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20061214 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20061214 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20061214 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20061214 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 141602
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1002 AM CST THU DEC 14 2006
   
   VALID 141630Z - 151200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   STRONG SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS NRN U.S. AND SRN
   CANADA.  S OF 40N...CONUS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKER
   SUBTROPICAL WAVE TRAIN.  SURFACE RIDGING FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES TO
   SRN PLAINS CONFINING ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
   INSTABILITY TO FAR S TX AND THE FL PENINSULA.
   
   AREA OF GREATEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD
   BE SRN FL WHERE LOW LEVEL SELYS HAVE IMPORTED A MOIST BUT ONLY
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  WITH APPROACH OF THE WEAK EMBEDDED
   S/WV TROUGH NOTED IN WV OVER SRN TX...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD
   INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON SRN FL.  LIMITED HEATING...WEAK LAPSE RATES
   AND MARGINAL SHEAR PRECLUDES ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
   
   NEXT IN CURRENT SERIES OF DEEP CYCLONES MOVES ACROSS VANCOUVER
   ISLAND THIS EVENING BRINGING VERY STRONG WINDS INLAND PAC NW.  WEAK
   INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO COASTAL
   AREAS...PRIMARILY TONIGHT IN THE POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW.
   
   WHILE THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FAR S TX THRU MID
   AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE GULF AND TO
   THE S AS THE MID LEVEL S/WV CURRENTLY CROSSING S TX MOVES ON TO THE
   E.
   
   ..HALES.. 12/14/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z