Dec 18, 2006 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Dec 18 00:42:10 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20061218 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20061218 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20061218 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20061218 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 180037
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0637 PM CST SUN DEC 17 2006
   
   VALID 180100Z - 181200Z
   
   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER
   LEVEL LOW OVER THE CA/NV REGION AS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE OVER
   THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  DOMINANT SWLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDS FROM NRN
   BAJA REGION INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER QUASISTATIONARY FRONT THAT
   EXTENDS FROM NRN VERMONT THROUGH SWRN MO/NERN OK INTO THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS OF TX.
   
   SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE CAROLINAS EXTENDS WSWWD THROUGH THE WRN
   GULF INHIBITING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN.  MODELS HINT AT
   INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT FROM ERN OK INTO SERN MO
   WHICH MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHALLOW CONVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT...BUT
   POOR LAPSE RATES WOULD INDICATE THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
   LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
   
   LATEST RAOB DATA SHOWS THAT 500 MB TEMPS NEAR MID LEVEL LOW
   CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL CA ARE AROUND -28C.  SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
   FORECASTS INDICATE THAT LIFTED INDICES OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST MAY
   BE AROUND -2...THUS ISOLATED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR BUT
   THREAT REMAINS TOO MARGINAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD TO
   WARRANT A GENERAL THUNDER AREA.
   
   ..MCCARTHY.. 12/18/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z