SPC AC 220055
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST THU DEC 21 2006
VALID 220100Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
GULF STATES...
...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS SHEARING NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST/LA
REGION THIS EVENING WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NOTED
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO SRN MS. WITHIN THIS
BROAD ZONE OF CONVECTION A FEW STRONG BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS LA...AND OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE UPDRAFTS
APPEAR ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. LCH/LIX/JAN SOUNDINGS ALL DISPLAY
MEAGER INSTABILITY WITHIN A MOIST AND WEAK LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT...ROUGHLY 6 C/KM. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR CERTAINLY
SUPPORTS ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS...AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE DESPITE MUCAPE VALUES LESS THAN 500 J/KG.
LATEST THINKING IS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE LARGE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH
MAY YET PRODUCE NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS...OR PERHAPS A BRIEF WEAK
TORNADO NEAR THE COAST.
..DARROW.. 12/22/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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