SPC AC 280030
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 PM CST WED DEC 27 2006
VALID 280100Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTHWESTERN STATES...
STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING UPPER JET
STREAK/SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS IS RATHER DRY...THE WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TO THE SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES. AND...IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT THIS WILL BECOME
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS...FIRST WEST
NORTHWEST OF PHOENIX...BEFORE DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA...TOWARD TUCSON LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. DUE TO
VERY WEAK CAPE...THE VIGOR OF UPDRAFTS WILL BE LIMITED. AND...
ALTHOUGH SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE...ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.
..KERR.. 12/28/2006
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