Dec 28, 2006 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Dec 28 00:34:10 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20061228 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20061228 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20061228 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20061228 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 280030
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0630 PM CST WED DEC 27 2006
   
   VALID 280100Z - 281200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SOUTHWESTERN STATES...
   STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING UPPER JET
   STREAK/SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
   EVENING.  ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS IS RATHER DRY...THE WARM BOUNDARY
   LAYER TO THE SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING
   LAPSE RATES.  AND...IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT THIS WILL BECOME
   SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS...FIRST WEST
   NORTHWEST OF PHOENIX...BEFORE DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
   PHOENIX AREA...TOWARD TUCSON LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.  DUE TO
   VERY WEAK CAPE...THE VIGOR OF UPDRAFTS WILL BE LIMITED.  AND...
   ALTHOUGH SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE...ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
   APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.
   
   ..KERR.. 12/28/2006
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z