Jan 1, 2006 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 1 06:45:37 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20060101 0800 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20060101 0800 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 010642
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1242 AM CST SUN JAN 01 2006
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW
   CSV 45 W UNI ZZV 30 ENE PKB 20 SE CRW 45 W BLF 10 ENE AVL 35 NW SOP
   FAY CHS SSI VLD DHN TOI 40 SW CSV.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW
   BVE 0A8 BWG 20 W SDF IND 25 NNW FWA 10 ENE TOL 30 NNW YNG DUJ EKN
   SSU PSK 40 N GSO RIC 50 E WAL ...CONT... 50 E DAB 40 W PIE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW OTH MHS LOL
   U31 DPG 4HV U17 IGM 35 NW TRM 45 WSW SAN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S HUM MEI TUP EVV
   DNV PIA BRL 25 SE ALO MTW 70 ESE BAX ...CONT... 25 WNW BUF 40 WNW
   ITH ISP 40 SSW BID ...CONT... 35 E VRB 50 WSW FMY.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG/WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
   AND FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
   AREA ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES....
   
   INTENSE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC JET CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY
   EASTWARD...AND EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
   PACIFIC COAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
   INDICATE EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S. WILL
   OCCUR TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH UPPER JET PROGGED TO BEGIN
   TO BREAK DOWN INTO SERIES OF AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE IMPULSES.
   
   LEAD TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE
   CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH CENTER OF BROAD DEEP SURFACE LOW SHIFTING
   INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY.  OCCLUDING SURFACE
   LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO MIGRATE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE
   DAY MONDAY...AS A SIGNIFICANT JET STREAK ROTATES AROUND THE EASTERN
   PERIPHERY OF AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND SLOWLY WEAKENS.
    AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER STRONG JET STREAK /ON THE
   ORDER OF 90 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL FORM ON SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTHERN
   PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...BEFORE NOSING THROUGH THE
   EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING WEST
   SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET /50+ KT AT 850 MB/ FROM SOUTHEAST
   ALABAMA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...AND SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
   
   GIVEN NEAR COMPLETE MODIFICATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF
   MEXICO...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NOW GENERALLY NEAR 70F...A
   SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST AREAS
   BETWEEN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE APPALACHIANS...AS WELL AS
   THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.  DEW POINTS
   INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 60F APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS A FAIRLY BROAD AREA
   BY MONDAY...CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE OR NEAR SURFACE
   BASED INSTABILITY.  THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING SHEAR
   PROFILES...WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL.  WARM
   LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERE MAY INITIALLY CAP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT
   INHIBITION SHOULD WEAKEN IN PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...AND AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS FAIRLY LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES.
   
   UPSTREAM...MODELS INDICATE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT INLAND
   ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE MONDAY
   AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.  COLD CORE OF UPPER SYSTEM COULD
   SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SAN
   JOAQUIN VALLEY AND LOS ANGELES BASIN...BUT UNCERTAINTIES ARE STILL
   SUBSTANTIAL...AND TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY OUTLOOK SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME.
   
   ...MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
   ALTHOUGH SURFACE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE PAST PEAK INTENSITY...
   FORCING WITH INITIAL IMPULSE/SPEED MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   SUFFICIENTLY STRONG THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT.  GIVEN EXPECTED MIXED LAYER CAPE AT OR ABOVE 500
   J/KG...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT SHOULD PROVE
   FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   APPEAR LIKELY...AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST
   IN STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF SURFACE LOW... FROM PARTS OF
   INDIANA INTO OHIO...AND AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WEST OF THE
   APPALACHIANS.
   
   ...EASTERN GULF STATES INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...
   SURFACE HEATING MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER...BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE
   AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
   GEORGIA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF ALABAMA/NORTHERN FLORIDA/ SOUTH
   CAROLINA.  WITH APPROACH OF STRENGTHENING/DIGGING MID/UPPER  JET
   STREAK...HODOGRAPHS/FORCING SEEM LIKELY TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
   LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG
   TORNADOES...LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  ACTIVITY IS
   EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
   DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE
   OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..KERR.. 01/01/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z