Jan 21, 2006 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook Updated: Sat Jan 21 05:49:36 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
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SPC AC 210548 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2006 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE CRP 25 W COT 45 SW JCT SJT 40 ENE ABI 15 NW PRX 65 WSW MEM 30 SSE MKL 30 SW CSV 35 SE TYS 15 W GSP 15 ENE AGS 20 E VDI 25 NNW AYS 20 E TLH 35 SW AAF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... FAST MOVING FRONTAL WAVE CYCLONE WILL RACE ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE TRACKING TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS CYCLONE WILL EXTEND WWD FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY. LARGE SCALE SLOPED ASCENT BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG MID/UPPER JET WAS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE FRONT FROM SERN TX TO NWRN LA. THIS PROCESS SHOULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM AZ/NM THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A HIGHER AMPLITUDE NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN EXPANDING SWATH OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS FROM SERN TX TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. ...MS DELTA REGION... SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL BE TRANSPORTED INLAND ACROSS SRN LA/MS AS LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS BRIEFLY WITHIN SHARPENING INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/ BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN LA AND SRN MS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD OVERCOME MID LEVEL CAPPING AND PROMOTE SCATTERED TSTMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. GREATER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BY 1) FORECAST OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 2) WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FLOW AS STRONGER MASS TRANSPORT BECOMES FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH AWAY FROM THE GREATER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. ..CARBIN.. 01/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z |