Jan 27, 2006 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 27 17:37:35 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML|PDF|DOC formats.
Categorical Graphic
20060127 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20060127 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 271734
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1134 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2006
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW
   MKO 25 WSW TUL ICT 10 ESE SLN 30 N MHK 10 S FNB 35 NNE MKC 15 SSW
   SZL 20 W SGF 15 ENE FYV 20 WNW FSM 20 SSW MKO.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N
   PSX 45 ESE AUS 35 NW CLL 35 SE CRS 30 N LFK 45 ESE LFK 25 W BPT LBX
   35 N PSX.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE CRP 50 S ALI
   20 SE LRD 40 W COT 35 WNW HDO 30 S BWD 30 E SPS 35 SW END 30 SSE DDC
   55 NNE GCK 25 ENE MCK 10 WNW OFK 35 S MCW 25 WNW RFD 25 E VPZ 35 W
   CMH 30 WSW UNI 10 NE JKL 20 SE CSV 25 NNE RMG 10 SW ATL 40 ESE CSG
   30 W TLH 50 SW AAF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW GPI 35 NNE 3DU
   20 E DLN 35 ENE SUN 60 NNW OWY 35 N REO 30 S PDT 45 SE EPH 40 NE EPH
   40 SSW OMK 20 N YKM 30 SSE DLS 35 WNW RDM 55 SE EUG 30 W MFR 30 W
   4BK.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
   PLAINS...SRN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE TX...
   
   ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU...
   AN UPPER-TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WRN US WILL
   DRIFT EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A
   WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD
   ACROSS EAST TX...ERN OK INTO ERN KS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SFC
   DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S F IN EAST TX/LA WITH 50S F
   EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS THE KANSAS CITY AREA BY SATURDAY
   AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD LIMIT SFC HEATING OVER MO...AR AND LA WITH A
   LARGE CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE
   REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE DURING THE DAY...IT APPEARS CLOUD COVER AND
   SFC HEATING WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR A SEVERE THREAT AS THE ACTIVITY
   DRIFTS EWD INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS EAST TX...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY
   AFTERNOON SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE
   STORMS. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
   CONCERNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS EAST TX AROUND MIDDAY ON
   SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...LIFT SHOULD BE ENHANCED AS THE RIGHT
   ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET DRIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE AREA.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONGLY
   VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AND/OR WIND DAMAGE
   POTENTIAL.
   
   FARTHER NORTH ACROSS ERN KS/NE OK...SUBSTANTIAL SFC HEATING SHOULD
   TAKE PLACE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A DRY SLOT FORECAST TO PUNCH NEWD
   ACROSS NRN OK AND SE KS DURING THE DAY. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER
   ENVIRONMENT IN ERN KS AND NE OK SHOULD RESULT IN MORE DISCRETE
   STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
   VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
   A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING
   THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDOW FOR SEVERE APPEARS NARROW WITH
   ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 01/27/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z