Jan 27, 2006 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook Updated: Fri Jan 27 17:37:35 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML|PDF|DOC formats.
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SPC AC 271734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2006 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW MKO 25 WSW TUL ICT 10 ESE SLN 30 N MHK 10 S FNB 35 NNE MKC 15 SSW SZL 20 W SGF 15 ENE FYV 20 WNW FSM 20 SSW MKO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N PSX 45 ESE AUS 35 NW CLL 35 SE CRS 30 N LFK 45 ESE LFK 25 W BPT LBX 35 N PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE CRP 50 S ALI 20 SE LRD 40 W COT 35 WNW HDO 30 S BWD 30 E SPS 35 SW END 30 SSE DDC 55 NNE GCK 25 ENE MCK 10 WNW OFK 35 S MCW 25 WNW RFD 25 E VPZ 35 W CMH 30 WSW UNI 10 NE JKL 20 SE CSV 25 NNE RMG 10 SW ATL 40 ESE CSG 30 W TLH 50 SW AAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW GPI 35 NNE 3DU 20 E DLN 35 ENE SUN 60 NNW OWY 35 N REO 30 S PDT 45 SE EPH 40 NE EPH 40 SSW OMK 20 N YKM 30 SSE DLS 35 WNW RDM 55 SE EUG 30 W MFR 30 W 4BK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...SRN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE TX... ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU... AN UPPER-TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WRN US WILL DRIFT EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD ACROSS EAST TX...ERN OK INTO ERN KS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S F IN EAST TX/LA WITH 50S F EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS THE KANSAS CITY AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD LIMIT SFC HEATING OVER MO...AR AND LA WITH A LARGE CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE DURING THE DAY...IT APPEARS CLOUD COVER AND SFC HEATING WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR A SEVERE THREAT AS THE ACTIVITY DRIFTS EWD INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS EAST TX...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS EAST TX AROUND MIDDAY ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...LIFT SHOULD BE ENHANCED AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET DRIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONGLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AND/OR WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS ERN KS/NE OK...SUBSTANTIAL SFC HEATING SHOULD TAKE PLACE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A DRY SLOT FORECAST TO PUNCH NEWD ACROSS NRN OK AND SE KS DURING THE DAY. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER ENVIRONMENT IN ERN KS AND NE OK SHOULD RESULT IN MORE DISCRETE STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDOW FOR SEVERE APPEARS NARROW WITH ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 01/27/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z |