SPC AC 050551
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1151 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE BPT 25 WSW ESF
   25 NNE MLU 35 NE GLH 20 SW UOX 45 NW BHM 30 ENE ATL 50 SE ILM
   ...CONT... 40 E SGJ 30 ESE GNV 55 NW PIE.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD
   WITH MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES BEING CLOSED MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW
   WHICH WILL PERSIST OVER QUEBEC AND REX-TYPE BLOCK FROM THE PACIFIC
   NW INTO THE ERN PACIFIC.  WITHIN THIS BROADER REGIME...SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH CURRENT DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE
   SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS ON DAY ONE...AND EVENTUALLY MORE
   EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
   
   IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
   INITIALLY LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT 06/12Z.  THIS CYCLONE
   WILL GENERALLY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
   MONDAY...INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS LOW AND IT/S
   ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO
   POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
   
   ...CNTRL AND ERN GULF COAST...
   
   CURRENT SURFACE AND GOES SOUNDER PW OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE THAT
   POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE HAS SCOURED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SWD INTO
   THE NRN BAY OF CAMPECHE.  GIVEN PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W...IT APPEARS THAT QUALITY
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING
   WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION AND DEGREE OF ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT.
   
   NONETHELESS...CLUSTERS OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE IN
   PROGRESS AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST MONDAY MORNING OVER THE LOWER
   MS VALLEY...LARGELY DRIVEN BY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WAA AND ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT ALONG SWLY 40-45 KT LLJ.  COUPLING OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
   APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DIRECT THERMAL CIRCULATION IN
   ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL MAINTAIN THIS WARM
   CONVEYOR BELT CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION
   AREA.  DAYTIME HEATING IN CONJUCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL
   ALLOW SOME THIS CONVECTION TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE
   SURFACE-BASED /MAINLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR/ AS WARM SECTOR
   BOUNDARY-LAYER SLOWLY DESTABILIZES.
   
   CO-LOCATION OF 70-85 KT WLY MID-LEVEL JET ATOP SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   WILL RESULT IN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
   EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
   TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.  AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LIMITED
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND PERHAPS COMPARATIVELY WARMER MID-LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES ON S SIDE OF JET AXIS COULD CONSIDERABLY REDUCE
   POTENTIAL PARCEL BUOYANCY ACROSS SYSTEM WARM SECTOR.  THUS...ONLY
   LOW PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED ATTM.
   
   THIS ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
   SRN GA AND NRN FL.
   
   ..MEAD.. 02/05/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z