SPC AC 090615
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1215 AM CST THU FEB 09 2006
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE BRO 45 SSW ALI
   40 SW COT 45 SE DRT 20 SW SJT 25 WSW ABI 20 NW MWL 25 NNE TYR 40 NNE
   HEZ 35 N ABY 45 SW VDI 20 E VLD 65 WSW CTY.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TWO
   PERIOD AS A BROAD TROUGH IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE CNTRL U.S. AND
   RIDGING CONTINUES FROM WRN CANADA SWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. 
   MEANWHILE...CLOSED LOW NOW APPROACHING BAJA CA IS FORECAST TO SHEAR
   OUT ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND SRN TX BEFORE BEING ENTRAINED INTO
   INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME OVER THE GULF COAST.
   
   IN THE LOW-LEVELS...STRONG COLD FRONT INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM LOW
   PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
   RAPIDLY PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND GULF COAST REGION.  A
   SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA /ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING SRN STREAM
   DISTURBANCE/ WILL DEVELOP ENEWD ALONG THIS COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL TX
   INTO SRN OR CNTRL GA BY SATURDAY MORNING.
   
   ...SERN TX INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...
   
   CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM
   THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY SWD THROUGH THE WRN GULF BASIN WITH 60F
   DEWPOINTS CONFINED TO THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SLY
   FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS...IT APPEARS
   THAT ONLY A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS WILL RETURN NWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
   WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING LARGELY IN THE 50S.
   
   CLUSTERS OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PROGRESS AT
   THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST FRIDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL TX
   WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH SWRN TX.  INCREASED LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX WITH
   STORMS BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY MORE SURFACE-BASED NEAR THE COAST.
   
   A SEPARATE BELT OF 55-65 KT MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   TX SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE TX COAST FRIDAY WITH
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES BECOMING QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF
   ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  HOWEVER AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH MOIST
   ADIABATIC LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
   ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES AOB 500-700 J/KG.
   
   SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY
   SURFACE-BASED STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SECONDARY SURFACE LOW FROM
   THE SE TX COAST EWD ACROSS FAR SRN LA. OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING
   ALONG SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WIND THREAT.  ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED ATTM
   OWING TO THE ANTICIPATED WEAK INSTABILITY.  SHOULD IT BECOME
   APPARENT MORE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN IS CURRENTLY
   FORECAST...A SLIGHT RISK BE REQUIRED FOR PART OF THE REGION.
   
   ..MEAD.. 02/09/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z