SPC AC 051721
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1121 AM CST SUN MAR 05 2006
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A LARGE SCALE
   PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE WRN STATES...RESULTING IN
   DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. 
   STRONG HEIGHT RISES FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO MIDWEST WILL AID IN
   THE AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY TOPPING RIDGE
   OVER DAKOTAS/SRN CANADA...AS IT DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE SRN-MID
   ATLANTIC COAST BY END OF DAY 2 PERIOD.
   
   IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL TX
   LATE DAY 1 SHOULD RETREAT NWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON MONDAY AS A
   WARM FRONT.  MEANWHILE...THE ERN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE
   CENTRAL-NERN GULF COAST STATES WILL MOVE SWD REACHING THE NRN GULF
   OF MEXICO TO NRN FL BY 12Z TUESDAY...AS THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
   MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE ERN SEABOARD.
   
   ...WRN STATES...
   COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL STEEPEN
   LAPSE RATES AND SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION FOR AN
   INCREASING THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THE WRN STATES.  OVERALL WEAK
   INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ...CENTRAL TX/SWRN LA NWD TO CENTRAL PLAINS...
   A SLOWER NWD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST
   HALF OF DAY 2...WITH A STRONGER SURGE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WRN
   TX/OK AS SLY LLJ EXTENDING NEWD INTO CENTRAL PLAINS STRENGTHENS IN
   RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH EWD PROGRESSION OF WRN TROUGH.  MODELS
   CONTINUE TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   ALONG RETREATING FRONT FROM CENTRAL TX TO SWRN LA MONDAY
   AFTERNOON...WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY
   SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT.  HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS/
   CONVERGENCE ALONG WARM FRONT AND LACK OF UPPER FORCING WITH RIDGING
   ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE FORECAST OF NO APPRECIABLE THUNDER AND/OR
   SEVERE THREAT.
   
   GREATER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH LATE IN THE FORECAST
   PERIOD...IS EXPECTED FARTHER N ACROSS SRN NEB INTO ERN HALF OF
   KS/OK. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER TX WITH 10+ C
   850 MB DEWPOINTS OBSERVED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS...SHOULD ADVECT NWD
   MONDAY NIGHT PER INCREASING LLJ.  THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WARM AIR
   ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT NNE OF WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
   IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER 07/06Z. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
   HAIL ACROSS KS/NRN OK...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ATTM.  THUS...
   WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/05/2006
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z