SPC AC 070755
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0155 AM CST TUE MAR 07 2006
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MO SWWD INTO CENTRAL TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE UPPER
   SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF THE SWRN U.S./SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS
   THIS PERIOD...AS WELL AS WITH THEIR POSITION OF THE DRYLINE.  
   
   OVERALL HOWEVER...UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS
   THROUGH THE PERIOD.  BROAD SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST OVER KS/OK BY
   LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS ERN KS/NRN
   MO AND INTO IL...AND A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS OK/WRN N TX.  AS
   UPPER TROUGH EJECTS...BOTH THE WARM FRONT AND THE DRYLINE SHOULD
   BECOME A FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY...
   SEASONABLY-MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
   60S/ WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL
   PLAINS/OZARKS REGION AHEAD OF ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
   SURFACE LOW.  THOUGH ENEWD ADVECTION OF EML SHOULD RESULT IN A
   CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING AND
   INCREASING UVV AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO
   DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM SRN KS SWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL OK INTO
   N TX AHEAD OF DRYLINE. STORMS SHOULD ALSO REDEVELOP/INCREASE INVOF
   WARM FRONT ACROSS ERN KS/MO BY AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.
   
   VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE WILL
   RESULT IN SHEAR MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS. 
   EXPECT INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE TO BE
   ISOLATED...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS LIKELY ALONG WARM FRONT
   ACROSS ERN KS/MO.  ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
   AND AT LEAST A LOW-END TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST.
   
   STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
   CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.  A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE SHOULD
   EVOLVE WITH TIME AHEAD OF DRYLINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS --
   RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  SEVERE THREAT
   SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXTENDING FROM THE MIDDLE MS
   VALLEY SWWD INTO CENTRAL TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/07/2006
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z