SPC AC 111730
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   TX...OK...LA...AR...MS...TN...MO...IA...IL...KY AND TN...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
   PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY...UPPER OH
   VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST...
   
   CORRECTED FOR MINOR WORDING
   
   ...MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS...
   A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN
   U.S. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PRESENT ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MS
   VALLEY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
   MOVE INTO THE PLAINS STATES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE
   ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL CAUSE
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS
   COMBINED WITH A BROAD WARM SECTOR WILL PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS
   NECESSARY FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
   NIGHT.
   
   MODEL FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT...INITIATING WIDESPREAD
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE 
   GRADIENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INITIATION WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR WHERE
   SFC HEATING IS MAXIMIZED WITH SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS DEVELOPING NEAR
   A SFC LOW ACROSS NRN MO EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS WRN AR...ERN OK AND
   NE TX NEAR A DRYLINE. AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO THE STRONGER
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND GREATER INSTABILITY...SEVERAL MCS CLUSTERS SHOULD
   ORGANIZE AND TRACK EWD ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION FROM 21Z TO 03Z SUNDAY
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND
   60 KT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX TO ABOUT 80 KT IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
   CONSIDERING MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS A BROAD WARM
   SECTOR...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE
   ENTIRE REGION. SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY MODE WHERE STORMS
   REMAIN DISCRETE WITH BOW ECHOES AND MULTICELL STORMS LIKELY IN STORM
   CLUSTERS OF LINEAR ORIENTATION. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR
   FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT LIKELY IN
   AREAS WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
   AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL
   WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELL STORMS IN
   THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY
   ESPECIALLY AS STORM CLUSTERS ORGANIZE INTO LINES DURING THE EVENING
   HOURS. A LARGE LINEAR MCS SHOULD DEVELOP AND CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE
   MS RIVER AND UPPER OH VALLEY. ALTHOUGH STORM INTENSITY SHOULD
   GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
   THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE BROAD WARM
   SECTOR IN PLACE.
   
   ...CNTRL PLAINS...
   BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AS A
   SFC LOW ORGANIZES ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NRN MO EXTENDING WWD
   ACROSS SRN NEB AND NRN KS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AS SFC TEMPS WARM DURING THE DAY. SUPERCELLS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH
   INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS A RESULT...A FEW OF THE STORMS
   COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
   LIKELY DECREASING DURING THE EVENING ON SUNDAY DUE TO DECREASING
   INSTABILITY.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 03/11/2006
   
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